Why Oil Prices Rose on Monday: Renewed U.S.-Iran Strikes, a Fragile Peace Deal, and the Strait of Hormuz

Fragility of the Interim Peace Deal

The June 17 pact — a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) — required Iran to reduce its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and suspended U.S.-imposed sanctions, allowing Iran to export oil more freely while talks continued over a 60-day period . However, the deal was immediately seen as fragile. Just days before the June 29 price move, reports indicated the U.S. and Iran appeared far from a permanent peace deal, with little progress toward an interim agreement and fresh attacks putting pressure on the April ceasefire . President Donald Trump himself warned that the deal was "not final" and that the U.S. could "go back to dropping bombs" . The renewed strikes confirmed market fears that the truce was tenuous at best .

Shipping Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remained the central geographic and strategic focus of the market reaction. The June 17 deal was described as including steps to open the strait for toll-free passage . But the renewed exchange of fire there, combined with attacks on ships including a Qatar-linked oil tanker from June 25, raised immediate doubts about how quickly normal shipping flows could resume . The International Maritime Organization even paused its planned evacuation of stranded ships in the strait after a cargo vessel was struck by an "unknown projectile" . Oil prices had already climbed 4% on that news before easing .

Diplomatic Talks: On-Again, Off-Again

Despite the hostility, a diplomatic track remained active. A U.S. official told ABC News on June 28 that both sides had agreed to stop attacks and allow vessels to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz, with technical talks slated to continue . This came after Iran skipped technical talks on Sunday, June 28, accusing the U.S. of violating the ceasefire . The conflicting signals — U.S. and Iranian officials giving contradictory statements about whether talks were paused or ongoing — kept markets in a state of uncertainty, neither fully pricing in peace nor a return to all-out war.

Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura Restart: The Counteracting Force

Partially offsetting the bullish impact of the renewed strikes was the resumption of crude loadings at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura terminal. After a nearly four-month halt caused by the war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) controlled by Saudi shipping arm Bahri began loading crude at the terminal on Friday, June 26, with a third vessel waiting nearby . Bloomberg described the restart as a "landmark moment in the resumption of Middle Eastern supplies after the Iran war" . This move signaled that, despite renewed security risks, at least some regional supply flows were returning to normal, which helped prevent a sharper price spike .

The Unverified Hotline

The question of whether a direct U.S.-IRGC deconfliction hotline was operational during this period could not be confirmed from the provided sources. The available reporting discusses negotiations, ceasefire fragility, and efforts toward a peace agreement, but does not provide evidence on the status of any direct military-to-military communication channel .

Summary of Market Factors

The June 29, 2026, oil price move was therefore a textbook example of a market caught between the bullish gravitational pull of geopolitical risk and the bearish anchor of a supply restart, all while a fragile peace deal hung in the balance.