Why the U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Unraveled: Polls, Power, and Unresolved Disputes

This was not a population willing to accept an open-ended negotiation. The public was war-weary, skeptical the deal delivered on U.S. objectives, and broadly opposed to the administration's handling of the conflict.

Iranian Public Sentiment: Relief Turns to Betrayal

Inside Iran, initial relief at the prospect of peace quickly gave way to anger and disillusionment, further destabilizing the deal.

• The New York Times reported that Iranians expressed a "mix of relief and skepticism" .
• NPR reported that numerous regime critics "express feelings of betrayal by the U.S."—not by the Iranian government, but by the American side for launching the war and then negotiating a deal widely seen as hollow .
• The Guardian captured the mood: "Everyone is angry for different reasons." One Tehran resident described the world being governed "by all the madmen" .
• Hardliners wanted the war to continue, while many anti-regime Iranians felt the U.S. had betrayed their hopes for political change by cutting a deal with the Islamic Republic .

Bipartisan Congressional Backlash

Congress turned sharply against both the war and the ceasefire deal, signaling that the administration lacked the political backing to sustain a long negotiation.

• House War Powers Resolution (June 4): The House passed a resolution directing Trump to seek congressional authorization before continuing military operations in Iran. It was the fourth such vote and the first time it passed, with four Republicans joining Democrats .
• Senate GOP revolt (June 16): Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic-led war powers resolution (47-48), but four GOP members defected .
• Trump's furious reaction (June 24): After Trump berated Senate Republicans, GOP leaders reversed course and tabled another proposal, passing 50-47 .
• The Economist (June 22): Characterized the situation as a "bipartisan backlash over Iran" .
• Washington Times (June 18): Lawmakers criticized the deal as lopsided. Senate Armed Services Chairman Roger Wicker said it "negotiates away the victories of Operation Epic Fury" .
• Post-unraveling violations (June 28): After renewed strikes, Democratic lawmakers accused Trump of violating the war powers resolution .

Fresh Military Strikes in Late June

The ceasefire collapsed in practice when the U.S. and Iran exchanged direct attacks.

• On June 27, the U.S. and Iran traded attacks in the Gulf in the first direct confrontation since the MoU was signed . Each side accused the other of violating the terms .
• The U.S. struck Iran for a second consecutive day on June 28, drawing accusations from Democratic lawmakers that Trump had violated the war powers resolution .

Unresolved Nuclear Disputes: The Hardest Questions Left for Later

The 60-day MoU deliberately deferred the hardest issues :

• Uranium enrichment: The Guardian reported the MoU left unresolved "Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, its nuclear agenda, sanctions, and the release of billions in frozen Iranian assets" . Wikipedia notes the core sticking point was Iran's right to continue domestic uranium enrichment .
• IAEA inspections: Lawmakers worried the deal "falls short of its objectives" on verification and that Iran could pocket sanctions relief without robust inspections .
• Neither side closed the gap before the June 27 strikes, leaving the nuclear question as a ticking clock.

Broader Geopolitical and Israeli Concerns

The agreement was fragile from the start because of other actors and underlying mistrust.

• Israel's role: The war was launched jointly by the U.S. and Israel . CSIS wrote that "the United States, Israel, and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire and only a ceasefire" and that Israel's future posture could collapse the deal . Chatham House warned that Israel could intervene to prevent a deal it saw as insufficient .
• Regional dynamics: The agreement required Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. to lift its naval blockade, affecting energy markets and Gulf state security .
• Deep mistrust: Chatham House assessed on June 22 that "both sides want to buy time" but factors like "midterm elections, Israel, and deep mistrust may intervene," concluding the ceasefire might prove "only another peace between wars" .

The Self-Reinforcing Collapse

In the end, no single factor killed the ceasefire. It was a perfect storm: deeply unpopular at home, met with Iranian anger and betrayal, attacked by a bipartisan Congress, punctured by fresh military strikes, and resting on a 60-day framework that deferred the hardest problems—while Israel and other actors stood ready to oppose any insufficient deal.