US-Iran Ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz: Vance's Hotline, the Ever Lovely Drone Strike, and the Fragile Islamabad MoU

The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding

Vance's hotline claim came just days after the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), a 14-point framework agreement signed digitally by U.S. and Iranian officials around June 14–18, 2026 . Its key terms include:

• Immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon .
• Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, toll-free, for a 60-day period .
• Iran must remove all naval mines within 30 days .
• Lifting of the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, proportional to the resumption of shipping .
• A 60-day extension of the ceasefire to allow negotiations on a permanent settlement, including nuclear issues and sanctions relief .
• A commitment to negotiate a final deal within 60 days, extendable by mutual consent, to be endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution .
• Provisions for a $300 billion reconstruction fund, oil export waivers, and the release of frozen Iranian assets .

The agreement was brokered with Pakistan as the primary mediator (which also mediated the original two-week ceasefire on April 8, 2026), with Qatar hosting the deconfliction channel talks in Doha .

The IRGC's Drone Attack on the M/V Ever Lovely

On June 25, 2026 — the same day Vance announced the hotline — the IRGC launched a drone strike against the Singapore-flagged container ship M/V Ever Lovely (operated by Taiwan-based Evergreen Marine) while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz near the Omani coast . One one-way attack drone struck the vessel's bridge and upper deck structure . The attack violated the June 17 ceasefire MoU and forced the United Nations to temporarily pause its evacuation operation for seafarers in the region . U.S. officials directly attributed the attack to Iran's IRGC .

CENTCOM's Retaliatory Strikes

On June 26, 2026, the U.S. military retaliated. American warplanes bombed multiple Iranian military targets along Iran's southern coast near the Strait of Hormuz and on Qeshm Island . CENTCOM stated it struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites as a “powerful response” to the Ever Lovely attack . President Trump accused Tehran of violating the ceasefire, calling the attack a “foolish violation” of the memorandum .

Reduced Shipping Traffic and Economic Impact

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely reduced since the war began on February 28, 2026 . Even amid the fragile ceasefires, traffic remained far below normal levels. On April 12, 2026, during the first ceasefire, only three supertankers were reported navigating through the strait . The U.S. launched a task force in early May 2026 to help stranded vessels, but traffic remained minimal . The Ever Lovely attack on June 25 halted the recovery, with transit volumes dropping sharply again . Normally, roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supplies transit the strait .

Broader Fragility of the Diplomatic Framework

The diplomatic framework remains extremely fragile. The April 8, 2026, two-week ceasefire was already violated by both sides numerous times before Trump extended it indefinitely on April 21 . The Islamabad MoU, despite being signed, was already violated within days of signing by the IRGC's Ever Lovely strike . Iran's military declared the strait closed again on June 20, 2026, accusing the U.S. and Israel of violating the deal . The diplomatic scaffolding depends heavily on Pakistani and Qatari mediation, with no direct bilateral trust between Washington and Tehran . The denial by Iranian officials of Vance's deconfliction channel claim underscores the lack of mutual confidence . The core issues — Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and a permanent end to hostilities — have been deferred to a provisional 60-day negotiation window .