QatarEnergy's LNG Force Majeure Nears Expiration: What’s Happening at Ras Laffan?

The force majeure declaration allowed QatarEnergy to suspend contractual delivery obligations due to unforeseen circumstances. Its expiration signals that the company believes it can resume normal contractual shipments to Asian customers, though the logistics of restarting the supply chain remain complex.

Production Recovery: Restart Underway, But Not Yet Full

Qatar's Prime Minister said on June 24 that the country will resume normal LNG production "within a few weeks" from the undamaged sections of the Ras Laffan facility . QatarEnergy is ready to restart production very quickly and could reach full output from undamaged trains within one month after the Strait of Hormuz reopens .

LNG tankers are already being moved back to Ras Laffan in preparation for resuming exports once safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored . The company aims to restore ~50% of its total capacity within two months after full reopening .

Capacity Damage: 17% of Capacity Offline for Years

The March 18–19 Iranian missile strikes on Ras Laffan caused "extensive damage" to two LNG production trains — Trains 4 and 6 — representing a combined 12.8 million tonnes per year, or ~17% of Qatar's total LNG export capacity . The two damaged trains will take three to five years to repair . The estimated revenue loss from the damaged capacity is roughly $20 billion per year in lost sales .

This permanent capacity loss means that even after the force majeure expires and undamaged trains resume full output, Qatar's total export capacity will remain significantly reduced for years.

The June 21 Ras Laffan Explosion: A Setback to Recovery

On June 21, 2026, an explosion and fire occurred at the Barzan gas processing plant within Ras Laffan Industrial City while personnel were working to restart operations after the Iranian strikes. The blast killed at least 13 people and injured 66 others . QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi stated the cause was a "technical malfunction" and ruled out hostile action . The incident added further operational strain to the recovery timeline.

QatarEnergy has stated the explosion will not affect the country's LNG export capabilities, but it introduces additional uncertainty and could slow the restart tempo for some operations.

Market Outlook: Prices to Remain Elevated Amid Supply Uncertainty

A preliminary U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal has been reached, enabling the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic . This is the key precondition for QatarEnergy's restart plan. Qatar has begun staging tankers and preparing for a rapid ramp-up, which should gradually ease global LNG supply tightness.

The outlook for Asian LNG prices is for downward pressure as Qatari volumes return, but prices are likely to remain elevated until full production from undamaged lines is confirmed and the two destroyed trains (17% of capacity) remain offline for years. The June 21 explosion introduces additional uncertainty and could slow the restart tempo for some operations.

Key risks to monitor: further technical incidents during restart, any delay or breakdown in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, and the multi-year timeline for rebuilding Trains 4 and 6.