Strait of Hormuz Post-War Traffic Milestone: 78 Vessels Cross on June 24 as Brent Crude Crashes 42%

A broader look at the week prior reinforces the uptick: the weekly total for June 15–21 reached 125 transits, the highest weekly count since the war began. This surge was driven by tankers rushing to move stored Gulf crude before the 60-day truce window under the US-Iran interim peace deal expired . On June 24 alone, supertankers carried at least 11 million barrels of crude oil from UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran through the strait .

Despite the milestone, traffic remained well below peacetime norms. Before the war, an average of roughly 130 ships passed daily . June 24's figures sat at roughly half that level, and the recovery remains constrained by persistent safety concerns.

Oil Markets in Freefall: Brent Crashes 42% from War Peak

The same day the strait saw its traffic milestone, oil markets experienced a sharp reversal that erased most of the war-induced price surge.

Brent crude fell ~4.3% on June 24 alone, dropping by over $3 to settle near $75.57/barrel — its lowest level since before the conflict began in February . WTI crude fell 4.4% to just below $70/barrel the same day . The decline pushed Brent below $74 at one point, the first time since the war started .

This single-day drop was part of a larger collapse: Brent had hit a war peak of ~$126/barrel in April. By June 24, it had crashed 42% from that peak, erasing virtually all conflict-era gains .

What Drove the Crash?

Several factors combined to drive prices sharply lower:

• Resumption of tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz: The US-Iran interim peace deal (framework announced around June 15, signed June 19) directly eased physical supply disruption fears. More oil tankers began openly transiting the strait, signaling that the worst supply constraints were behind the market .
• UBS slashed its Brent crude forecasts as Middle East oil supply began recovering faster than expected, giving traders a clear signal that the supply crunch had passed .
• Investor sentiment shifted from pricing in worst-case supply-crunch scenarios to pricing in normalization, as more tankers signaled readiness to depart the strait and oil futures reflected expectations of Iranian re-entry into global markets .

"Oil is dropping sharply as the Strait of Hormuz remains open and traders start to focus on OPEC, including Iran, potentially moving to maximum production," Infrastructure Capital Advisors noted .

IMF and UN: Normalization Will Take Time, Safety Concerns Remain

Despite the market's rapid repricing, both the IMF and the United Nations warned that the recovery is far from complete.

IMF (June 25, 2026)

Spokesperson Julie Kozack acknowledged that energy and commodity prices have fallen since the US-Iran agreement, but warned that Gulf trade flows will take time to return to normal. The IMF said it would decide in its July 8 World Economic Outlook update whether to maintain the three growth scenarios issued in April .

This wasn't a new position. In its June 2026 Article IV consultation with Saudi Arabia, the IMF had already made Saudi GDP recovery "contingent on maritime shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizing over the coming months" — marking the first time a Gulf state's economic forecast was explicitly conditioned on an adversary-held strait .

United Nations / Security Council (June 24, 2026)

A UN Security Council letter dated June 24 expressed alarm that recurring attacks and threats on merchant vessels in and near the Strait of Hormuz — including actions impeding lawful transit passage and freedom of navigation — have continued despite the adoption of Resolution 2817 (2026) and the subsequent ceasefire .

The concern proved prescient almost immediately. On June 26, a fresh attack on the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely off the Omani coast — attributed by a US official to Iran's IRGC — halted the UN evacuation plan for roughly 11,000 stranded sailors and sent some tankers into reverse, underscoring that safety assurances were not yet reliable .

Even before the Ever Lovely attack, shipping industry body BIMCO had warned on June 18 that the central part of the strait remains mined and unnavigable, with only inshore traffic zones near Oman and Iran reportedly clear of mines. This created a dangerous split between competing Iranian and Omani/US routing authorities, raising the risk of congestion and navigational incidents .

The Broader Picture

The traffic milestone on June 24 demonstrated that the diplomatic channel can produce tangible results: a ceasefire agreement, a safe corridor, and a measurable increase in vessel transits. But the Ever Lovely attack, continued mine risks, and the IMF's cautious language made clear that the return to normal is not a straight line. As the June 24 UN letter put it, the threats have continued despite the ceasefire . The recovery remains fragile, contingent on sustained diplomatic progress and — critically — reliable safety assurances on the water.