Apple's 2026 Market Share Projections: Record Gains Across iPhones, Macs, iPads, and Watches Amid a Historic Industry Crisis

PCs (Macs): Apple's Mac shipments are forecast to grow 23% year-on-year in 2026, while the overall laptop market declines 11% . Apple will gain the highest percentage points of market share in the laptop segment in 2026, reaching a record high .

Tablets (iPad): The overall tablet market is declining in 2026 due to inventory correction and memory shortages, but Apple is expected to grow, driven by a broad refresh cycle across its iPad portfolio, reaching its highest-ever tablet market share .

Smartwatches (Apple Watch): In Q1 2026, Apple held a 23% share of the global smartwatch market, up from roughly 20% a year earlier, with Apple Watch shipments surging 21% year-on-year . The full-year 2026 smartwatch segment is expected to grow about 1%, with Apple growing faster than the overall segment .

The Broader Industry's Historic Decline

The global device market is in crisis, driven by three converging forces:

• Memory chip shortage: A severe global deficit of DRAM and NAND flash memory, driven by AI data center demand, has sent component prices surging and constrained supply for device manufacturers . DRAM and NAND supply growth in 2026 is well below historical norms .
• Rising component costs: Memory chip prices have risen dramatically, forcing OEMs to raise prices. Smartphone average selling prices (ASPs) are forecast to hit a record $550, up $100 from 2025 . PC makers face 15–20% price increases to maintain margins .
• Geopolitical pressures: The US-Iran war has added fresh cost pressure through rising oil prices and transportation costs, further squeezing OEMs .

The result is a historic contraction across all major device categories:

• Smartphones: IDC forecasts global shipments will decline 13.9% in 2026 to 1.09 billion units, the steepest annual contraction in smartphone history, with a further 1.1% decline expected in 2027 . Counterpoint Research similarly expects "the worst year on record" . Android shipments alone are forecast to drop 21% .
• PCs: IDC forecasts global PC shipments will decline 11.3% for the full year 2026, with conditions worsening through Q4 (down 20% year-on-year) . The total personal computing device (PCD) market—PCs plus tablets—is forecast to decline 10.4% year-on-year to 401.9 million units .
• Smartwatches: The broader smartwatch market is less impacted by the memory crisis but is expected to show only about 1% growth in 2026, a tepid pace .

How Apple's Performance Compares

Apple's divergent performance is attributed to three structural advantages, per analysts:

1. Supply chain resilience: Apple secured memory supply early, shielding it from the worst of the component shortage .
2. Premium positioning: Affluent consumers are less price-sensitive, and Apple's premium margins allow it to absorb cost shocks without raising prices as aggressively as competitors .
3. Lowered entry points: Newer, more affordable models (iPhone SE, Apple Watch SE 3, MacBook Neo) are attracting price-sensitive buyers while rival OEMs are forced to raise prices .

In short, 2026 is shaping up as a starkly two-tier market: Apple is capturing record share and growing in volume or holding flat across every major device category, while the rest of the industry—particularly Android OEMs and budget-segment players—faces the worst shipment collapse on record .