Apple's 2026 Market Share Projections: Record Gains Across iPhones, Macs, iPads, and Watches Amid a Historic Industry Crisis

In 2026, Apple is projected to reach record market share across smartphones, PCs, tablets, and smartwatches, while the broader industry endures its steepest shipment decline in history due to a severe memory chip shortage, rising component costs, and geopolitical pressures such as the US-Iran war .

Apple's Projected Market Share in 2026

Smartphones: Counterpoint Research forecasts Apple will reach its highest-ever smartphone market share of ~25% in 2026, up from 20% in 2025 . IDC projects iOS will deliver its highest annual share ever at 22% . Both estimates reflect Apple's iPhone shipments holding roughly flat while most other OEMs see double-digit declines .

PCs (Macs): Apple's Mac shipments are forecast to grow 23% year-on-year in 2026, while the overall laptop market declines 11% . Apple will gain the highest percentage points of market share in the laptop segment in 2026, reaching a record high .

Tablets (iPad): The overall tablet market is declining in 2026 due to inventory correction and memory shortages, but Apple is expected to grow, driven by a broad refresh cycle across its iPad portfolio, reaching its highest-ever tablet market share .

Smartwatches (Apple Watch): In Q1 2026, Apple held a 23% share of the global smartwatch market, up from roughly 20% a year earlier, with Apple Watch shipments surging 21% year-on-year . The full-year 2026 smartwatch segment is expected to grow about 1%, with Apple growing faster than the overall segment .

The Broader Industry's Historic Decline

The global device market is in crisis, driven by three converging forces:

• Memory chip shortage: A severe global deficit of DRAM and NAND flash memory, driven by AI data center demand, has sent component prices surging and constrained supply for device manufacturers . DRAM and NAND supply growth in 2026 is well below historical norms .
• Rising component costs: Memory chip prices have risen dramatically, forcing OEMs to raise prices. Smartphone average selling prices (ASPs) are forecast to hit a record $550, up $100 from 2025 . PC makers face 15–20% price increases to maintain margins .
• Geopolitical pressures: The US-Iran war has added fresh cost pressure through rising oil prices and transportation costs, further squeezing OEMs .

The result is a historic contraction across all major device categories:

• Smartphones: IDC forecasts global shipments will decline 13.9% in 2026 to 1.09 billion units, the steepest annual contraction in smartphone history, with a further 1.1% decline expected in 2027 . Counterpoint Research similarly expects "the worst year on record" . Android shipments alone are forecast to drop 21% .
• PCs: IDC forecasts global PC shipments will decline 11.3% for the full year 2026, with conditions worsening through Q4 (down 20% year-on-year) . The total personal computing device (PCD) market—PCs plus tablets—is forecast to decline 10.4% year-on-year to 401.9 million units .
• Smartwatches: The broader smartwatch market is less impacted by the memory crisis but is expected to show only about 1% growth in 2026, a tepid pace .

How Apple's Performance Compares

Segment	Apple's 2026 Forecast	Broader Industry Forecast
Smartphones	Share ~22–25% (record); shipments flat YoY	-13.9% shipments (record low); Android -21%
PCs (laptops)	Mac shipments +23% YoY	Overall laptop market -11%; PC market -11.3%
Tablets	Share growth; driven by portfolio refresh	Overall tablet market declining
Smartwatches	Apple Watch growing faster than segment (~23% share in Q1)	Segment ~1% growth

Apple's divergent performance is attributed to three structural advantages, per analysts:

1. Supply chain resilience: Apple secured memory supply early, shielding it from the worst of the component shortage .
2. Premium positioning: Affluent consumers are less price-sensitive, and Apple's premium margins allow it to absorb cost shocks without raising prices as aggressively as competitors .
3. Lowered entry points: Newer, more affordable models (iPhone SE, Apple Watch SE 3, MacBook Neo) are attracting price-sensitive buyers while rival OEMs are forced to raise prices .

In short, 2026 is shaping up as a starkly two-tier market: Apple is capturing record share and growing in volume or holding flat across every major device category, while the rest of the industry—particularly Android OEMs and budget-segment players—faces the worst shipment collapse on record .