2. War-driven Strait of Hormuz closure disrupting fertilizer supplies

Since hostilities erupted on February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed, cutting off roughly one-third of all globally traded fertilizer and its feedstocks, including urea, ammonia, natural gas, and sulfur . Fertilizer prices soared 30–40% in March 2026, with nitrogen costs doubling compared to 2024 levels . The FAO's chief economist warned that the Strait's blockade is "not a temporary shipping disruption but the beginning of a systemic agrifood shock" that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within 6–12 months . The World Economic Forum's Chief Economists' Outlook cited "grave concerns" about food production disruptions from the closure .

3. Energy market chaos compounding input costs

Skyrocketing oil and natural gas prices from the Hormuz closure further raise the cost of fertilizer production — natural gas is the key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer — as well as agricultural fuel and transport costs . The World Bank projected that the global fertilizer index would rise over 30% for the year .

Expected impacts on specific crops and regions

• Most exposed crops: Sugar, rice, wheat, cocoa, corn, and soybeans face particularly acute supply risks . Sugar and rice are highly sensitive to El Niño rainfall shifts; wheat, corn, and soybeans are vulnerable to reduced fertilizer application and drought in key growing regions . The FAO fears that 7 to 8 million tonnes of rice production in Asia and the Pacific alone could be at risk .
• Southeast Asia: Identified as among the most severely impacted region. The Hormuz disruption hit energy and fertilizer flows hard, and El Niño threatens monsoon-dependent rice and palm oil production . UN experts warned of a potential "compound shock effect" .
• South Asia / India: El Niño typically brings weaker monsoons, threatening summer-sown crops (rice, sugarcane, pulses) in a region already facing high fertilizer costs . Citi Research specifically highlighted the risks to India's agricultural markets .
• Africa (East & Southern): The Mercy Corps report warns food insecurity will worsen through late 2026 into 2027 across six vulnerable countries, with second-order impacts on agricultural inputs and humanitarian supply chains . The World Food Programme estimates that 45 million additional people could be pushed into acute hunger .
• Latin America: El Niño typically brings drought to Australia and parts of Indonesia, while increasing rainfall risks in parts of South America. Fertilizer shortages hit corn and soybean production across the Americas .
• G7 countries: While the most acute hunger risks are in developing nations, the inflation channel reaches advanced economies through higher import costs for fertilizer, grain, sugar, cocoa, and vegetable oils .

Warnings that food inflation could reach double digits in G7

• Schroders (June 2026): David Rees, head of global economics, warns that a strong El Niño on top of fertilizer supply disruption "could push next year's food inflation into double-digits" in advanced economies . He notes that a 50% rise in the UN FAO food price index could push G7 food inflation into double digits during 2027 and add more than 1 percentage point to headline inflation .
• Citi Research (May 2026): Warns that agricultural commodity prices face "significant upward pressure," with the combination of Hormuz disruption and El Niño fueling a fresh global food inflation surge .
• Analyst note ("Super El Niño: Famine Follows War?"): Warns the "perfect storm" of war-disrupted energy and fertilizer markets plus extreme weather creates a direct path to double-digit food inflation in developed economies .
• Bloomberg (June 2026): Reports the El Niño is arriving into an economy "unprepared for more chaos" — with fertilizer costs already elevated, crop yield reductions will translate directly into consumer food price spikes .
• FAO (June 2026): The FAO's chief economist warns that corn, soybean, and wheat prices have already risen, and a "dangerous spike in food price inflation later this year" is likely unless the Strait is reopened .
• Fitch Ratings (June 2026): Warns that El Niño is likely to persist until early 2027, posing risks to inflation even in highly rated sovereign economies .
• UBS (June 2026): Confirmed that the Middle East-driven fertilizer shock is now moving through the global food supply chain, creating the potential for an inflation surge across Asia later this year into 2027 .

Caveats and uncertainties

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) offered a more cautious view in April 2026, noting ample global grain stocks and favorable early crop conditions could buffer some of the shock in the near term . However, most subsequent analysis from June 2026 has shifted toward the more severe scenario as the Hormuz closure has persisted and El Niño has materialized.

The "super El Niño" label is not an official NOAA classification, though it is widely used in financial and media reporting to describe an exceptionally strong event where sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal . The ultimate severity depends on the duration of the Hormuz closure, the exact strength and geographic pattern of El Niño rainfall anomalies, and whether governments release strategic grain reserves or adjust biofuel mandates .

2. War-driven Strait of Hormuz closure disrupting fertilizer supplies

Since hostilities erupted on February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed, cutting off roughly one-third of all globally traded fertilizer and its feedstocks, including urea, ammonia, natural gas, and sulfur . Fertilizer prices soared 30–40% in March 2026, with nitrogen costs doubling compared to 2024 levels . The FAO's chief economist warned that the Strait's blockade is "not a temporary shipping disruption but the beginning of a systemic agrifood shock" that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within 6–12 months . The World Economic Forum's Chief Economists' Outlook cited "grave concerns" about food production disruptions from the closure .

3. Energy market chaos compounding input costs

Skyrocketing oil and natural gas prices from the Hormuz closure further raise the cost of fertilizer production — natural gas is the key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer — as well as agricultural fuel and transport costs . The World Bank projected that the global fertilizer index would rise over 30% for the year .

Expected impacts on specific crops and regions

• Most exposed crops: Sugar, rice, wheat, cocoa, corn, and soybeans face particularly acute supply risks . Sugar and rice are highly sensitive to El Niño rainfall shifts; wheat, corn, and soybeans are vulnerable to reduced fertilizer application and drought in key growing regions . The FAO fears that 7 to 8 million tonnes of rice production in Asia and the Pacific alone could be at risk .
• Southeast Asia: Identified as among the most severely impacted region. The Hormuz disruption hit energy and fertilizer flows hard, and El Niño threatens monsoon-dependent rice and palm oil production . UN experts warned of a potential "compound shock effect" .
• South Asia / India: El Niño typically brings weaker monsoons, threatening summer-sown crops (rice, sugarcane, pulses) in a region already facing high fertilizer costs . Citi Research specifically highlighted the risks to India's agricultural markets .
• Africa (East & Southern): The Mercy Corps report warns food insecurity will worsen through late 2026 into 2027 across six vulnerable countries, with second-order impacts on agricultural inputs and humanitarian supply chains . The World Food Programme estimates that 45 million additional people could be pushed into acute hunger .
• Latin America: El Niño typically brings drought to Australia and parts of Indonesia, while increasing rainfall risks in parts of South America. Fertilizer shortages hit corn and soybean production across the Americas .
• G7 countries: While the most acute hunger risks are in developing nations, the inflation channel reaches advanced economies through higher import costs for fertilizer, grain, sugar, cocoa, and vegetable oils .

Warnings that food inflation could reach double digits in G7

• Schroders (June 2026): David Rees, head of global economics, warns that a strong El Niño on top of fertilizer supply disruption "could push next year's food inflation into double-digits" in advanced economies . He notes that a 50% rise in the UN FAO food price index could push G7 food inflation into double digits during 2027 and add more than 1 percentage point to headline inflation .
• Citi Research (May 2026): Warns that agricultural commodity prices face "significant upward pressure," with the combination of Hormuz disruption and El Niño fueling a fresh global food inflation surge .
• Analyst note ("Super El Niño: Famine Follows War?"): Warns the "perfect storm" of war-disrupted energy and fertilizer markets plus extreme weather creates a direct path to double-digit food inflation in developed economies .
• Bloomberg (June 2026): Reports the El Niño is arriving into an economy "unprepared for more chaos" — with fertilizer costs already elevated, crop yield reductions will translate directly into consumer food price spikes .
• FAO (June 2026): The FAO's chief economist warns that corn, soybean, and wheat prices have already risen, and a "dangerous spike in food price inflation later this year" is likely unless the Strait is reopened .
• Fitch Ratings (June 2026): Warns that El Niño is likely to persist until early 2027, posing risks to inflation even in highly rated sovereign economies .
• UBS (June 2026): Confirmed that the Middle East-driven fertilizer shock is now moving through the global food supply chain, creating the potential for an inflation surge across Asia later this year into 2027 .

Caveats and uncertainties

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) offered a more cautious view in April 2026, noting ample global grain stocks and favorable early crop conditions could buffer some of the shock in the near term . However, most subsequent analysis from June 2026 has shifted toward the more severe scenario as the Hormuz closure has persisted and El Niño has materialized.

The "super El Niño" label is not an official NOAA classification, though it is widely used in financial and media reporting to describe an exceptionally strong event where sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal . The ultimate severity depends on the duration of the Hormuz closure, the exact strength and geographic pattern of El Niño rainfall anomalies, and whether governments release strategic grain reserves or adjust biofuel mandates .