Europe’s Heat-and-Drought Crisis: New Study Shows the Poor Are Hit Hardest

Regional hotspots are clear. Not all of Europe is affected equally. The regions that have suffered the largest historical income losses are Madrid (nearly 10% drop), Central Hungary (9.4%), and Central Spain (8.8%) . The study projects that Greek, Spanish, Romanian, Bulgarian, and Cypriot households face the steepest future losses .

Poverty risks soar. The study estimates that at 1.5°C of global warming, about 60 million Europeans could be at risk of poverty from compound climate extremes. At 2.7°C — the trajectory the world is currently on under existing policies and pledges — that number more than doubles, to 127 million people .

Long-term income projections are stark. If warming reaches 2.7°C by 2100, average European household incomes could fall 27% compared to a baseline without further warming. If warming is successfully limited to 1.5°C, the average decline would be roughly 7% .

The study was published as part of the ACCREU project and is available in Global Environmental Change .

The Heatwave That Brought the Study to Life

The same week the study was released, Europe was hit by a catastrophic June 2026 heatwave that broke temperature records across multiple countries. The connection between the academic findings and real-world events was immediate and visceral.

• Deaths: At least 40 people drowned in France while trying to cool off in water; three elderly people died near Bordeaux from heat-related causes; and two young children were found dead in a car in southern France . In Spain, a 90-year-old woman and a 68-year-old man died from heatstroke . The Wikipedia page for the event tallied 282+ deaths across France (58), the UK (15), and Spain (209) .
• Power outages: A heat-related transformer failure in France caused power cuts affecting up to 106,000 households, including 68,000 in Finistère . Blackouts also struck Milan and Turin due to surging air conditioning use .
• School closures: Hundreds of schools in the UK, France, and Germany either closed entirely or switched to shortened schedules, with education unions deeming conditions unsafe for children . In France alone, 845 schools closed and another 1,800 adjusted their hours .
• Transport disruptions: Eurostar cancelled four London–Paris trains, and many UK train services were cancelled, with authorities urging passengers to avoid non-essential travel . Rail services in Belgium, France, and Spain also reduced operations .
• Aging infrastructure: The heatwave exposed just how unprepared Europe is. Only about 20% of European homes have air conditioning, and much of the continent's housing, transport, and energy networks were built for a climate that no longer exists .

Broader Heat Mortality Context

The study's release also coincided with a stark reminder from the World Health Organization's Europe office: over the previous four years, more than 200,000 people across Europe died from heat-related causes, and most of those deaths were preventable . Globally, heat stress is the most lethal environmental hazard, causing nearly 500,000 annual deaths .

The Compound Effect: Why This Study Matters

Schleypen emphasized this point: "When heatwaves and droughts occur at the same time, the damage can be much greater than when they occur separately" . The study’s data bear this out — the compound effect nearly doubles the sum of individual impacts — meaning that policymakers who plan for heatwaves or droughts in isolation are likely to underinvest in adaptation.

The research also finds that the frequency of compound heat-and-drought events is increasing across Europe, consistent with broader academic literature showing that anthropogenic climate change has doubled the frequency of such compounding events in many world regions .

Calls for Stronger Adaptation

"The current heatwave is already threatening people’s health, livelihoods, and ability to work," Schleypen said in the study’s press release . Scientists underscored that Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent, with temperatures rising at about twice the global average rate, and that aging infrastructure and limited air conditioning make adaptation an urgent priority . The study warns that without rapid emissions cuts and significantly increased investment in adaptation — especially for the most vulnerable households — inequality and poverty in Europe will worsen substantially over the coming decades .