Wall Street Slashes Oil Price Forecasts After U.S.-Iran Peace Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening

Subsequent talks in Switzerland (June 19–22) were described as constructive — Tehran said it secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports — but were briefly interrupted when President Trump threatened renewed strikes, adding short-term volatility . The talks resumed and concluded with Vice President Vance reporting "progress" toward a permanent deal .

How Wall Street Banks Revised Their Oil Price Forecasts

All four banks slashed their Brent crude forecasts sharply after the agreement. The revisions were compiled from Reuters, Bloomberg, and bank notes .

• Goldman Sachs described this as its second cut in a week and said the deal brought forward its timeline for a Gulf supply rebound by one month .
• Citi made the most aggressive cuts, nearly halving its Q3 2026 Brent estimate from $110 to $75 and forecasting $65 for 2027 .
• Macquarie performed a dramatic U-turn — in March it had warned oil could hit $200/bbl if the war lasted until June; post-deal it slashed its 2026–2027 benchmarks to well below pre-war levels .
• Barclays notably broke from the pack, keeping its 2026 Brent forecast at $100/bbl, arguing the deal "won't solve oil supply issues overnight" .

How Actual Crude Benchmarks Responded

Crude prices fell sharply through the period as each phase of the deal was announced.

Price timeline:

As of June 22, 2026, Brent crude was trading at ~$79/bbl and WTI at approximately $74–75/bbl . Brent was on track for a weekly decline of more than 8% from pre-deal levels . The market continued to weigh durability risks: Trump's threat of fresh strikes on June 22 briefly lifted prices, but the overall trajectory remained sharply lower as traders priced in the return of Iranian supply and the reopening of the Strait .

Key Takeaway for Investors

The swift downward revision by major banks signals a consensus that the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices during the Iran conflict has been largely removed. However, the temporary nature of the 60-day framework and the risk of renewed hostilities means the market is not entirely out of the woods. The divergence between Barclays' more cautious $100 forecast and Citi's aggressively bearish $65 outlook for 2027 underscores the uncertainty that remains.