• Robust earnings potential: Asia ex-Japan is expected to deliver the strongest earnings growth among major markets in 2026–2027 .
• AI-driven capital expenditure and semiconductor demand: Increased spending on AI and advancements from chip manufacturers are key catalysts .
• Attractive valuations: The MSCI Asia ex-Japan and China equity indices trade at roughly 13.8x and 12.3x forward P/E, respectively .

The bank also remains Overweight on US equities and global equities overall, having locked in gains from its earlier Asia ex-Japan and semiconductor overweights, while upgrading Euro area equities to a core holding in May 2026 .

S&P 500 and Gold Targets (Mid-2027)

Standard Chartered's H2 outlook sets specific price targets for two key assets by mid-2027:

The bank also lowered its near-term gold targets to $4,750/oz (3-month) and $5,100/oz (12-month) as of June 19 . The S&P 500 closed just above 7,500 on June 18, implying roughly 6% upside to the 7,950 target .

Macroeconomic Assumptions

Standard Chartered's outlook is grounded in a specific set of macroeconomic views:

Federal Reserve Policy:
The bank expects the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% for the remainder of 2026, with no rate cuts this year. It anticipates only a single 25 bps cut in the first half of 2027 . This aligns with the Fed's June 2026 FOMC decision (unanimous hold) and market pricing showing an ~80% probability of zero cuts in 2026 . Goldman Sachs also shares a similar view, projecting no cuts until 2027 .

Inflation:
The bank's base case assumes the Fed will "look through" a near-term rise in inflation caused by Middle East disruptions. The Fed's own June 2026 projections lifted 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% .

Strait of Hormuz:
Standard Chartered's core scenario is a restart of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within weeks. This is seen as positive for risk sentiment, the earnings outlook, and oil prices. The bank lowered its WTI forecasts to $80/bbl (3-month) and $70/bbl (12-month) on reduced geopolitical risk premiums .

Global Soft Landing:
The bank's macro base case is an economic soft landing — the scenario under which it expects the Fed to hold rates in H1 and then cut by 50 bps in H2 (though the H2 cut timing has been pushed out). The S&P 7,950 target and overweight equity stance are explicitly framed around this soft-landing narrative . A precise probability percentage is not cited in the available sources; the bank describes it as its base-case assumption rather than assigning a numeric probability.

Conclusion

Standard Chartered's H2 2026 outlook presents a coherent, risk-on view: overweight equities globally with a strong tilt toward Asia ex-Japan, S&P 500 and gold targets that imply further upside, and a macro narrative betting on a swift resolution of geopolitical disruptions and a Fed that remains patient. Investors should weigh these projections against their own risk tolerance and the inherent uncertainties in the underlying assumptions.

• Robust earnings potential: Asia ex-Japan is expected to deliver the strongest earnings growth among major markets in 2026–2027 .
• AI-driven capital expenditure and semiconductor demand: Increased spending on AI and advancements from chip manufacturers are key catalysts .
• Attractive valuations: The MSCI Asia ex-Japan and China equity indices trade at roughly 13.8x and 12.3x forward P/E, respectively .

The bank also remains Overweight on US equities and global equities overall, having locked in gains from its earlier Asia ex-Japan and semiconductor overweights, while upgrading Euro area equities to a core holding in May 2026 .

S&P 500 and Gold Targets (Mid-2027)

Standard Chartered's H2 outlook sets specific price targets for two key assets by mid-2027:

The bank also lowered its near-term gold targets to $4,750/oz (3-month) and $5,100/oz (12-month) as of June 19 . The S&P 500 closed just above 7,500 on June 18, implying roughly 6% upside to the 7,950 target .

Macroeconomic Assumptions

Standard Chartered's outlook is grounded in a specific set of macroeconomic views:

Federal Reserve Policy:
The bank expects the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% for the remainder of 2026, with no rate cuts this year. It anticipates only a single 25 bps cut in the first half of 2027 . This aligns with the Fed's June 2026 FOMC decision (unanimous hold) and market pricing showing an ~80% probability of zero cuts in 2026 . Goldman Sachs also shares a similar view, projecting no cuts until 2027 .

Inflation:
The bank's base case assumes the Fed will "look through" a near-term rise in inflation caused by Middle East disruptions. The Fed's own June 2026 projections lifted 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% .

Strait of Hormuz:
Standard Chartered's core scenario is a restart of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within weeks. This is seen as positive for risk sentiment, the earnings outlook, and oil prices. The bank lowered its WTI forecasts to $80/bbl (3-month) and $70/bbl (12-month) on reduced geopolitical risk premiums .

Global Soft Landing:
The bank's macro base case is an economic soft landing — the scenario under which it expects the Fed to hold rates in H1 and then cut by 50 bps in H2 (though the H2 cut timing has been pushed out). The S&P 7,950 target and overweight equity stance are explicitly framed around this soft-landing narrative . A precise probability percentage is not cited in the available sources; the bank describes it as its base-case assumption rather than assigning a numeric probability.

Conclusion

Standard Chartered's H2 2026 outlook presents a coherent, risk-on view: overweight equities globally with a strong tilt toward Asia ex-Japan, S&P 500 and gold targets that imply further upside, and a macro narrative betting on a swift resolution of geopolitical disruptions and a Fed that remains patient. Investors should weigh these projections against their own risk tolerance and the inherent uncertainties in the underlying assumptions.