Mexico vows to restart oil shipments to Cuba — but U.S. sanctions still block them

How the crisis unfolded

1. Collapse of Venezuelan supplies after the U.S. intervention

In early January 2026, the United States intervened militarily in Venezuela, ousting President Nicolás Maduro and taking effective control of Venezuelan oil operations . Venezuela had been Cuba's primary fuel lifeline for decades, and those shipments were cut off entirely and have not resumed . Even before the intervention, Cuba's fuel imports from Venezuela and Mexico had already fallen by more than one-third in the first 10 months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 .

2. Mexico briefly became the key supplier, then halted under U.S. pressure

After the Venezuela cutoff, Mexico — through state-owned Pemex — stepped in as Cuba's critical remaining fuel supplier, selling $166 million worth of crude and fuel in the first half of 2025 alone . In late January 2026, President Trump declared a "national emergency" and threatened high tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba, accusing Havana of harboring Russian spies and hosting "enemies" such as Iran and Hamas . Mexico shelved a planned shipment on January 26, 2026 . Sheinbaum confirmed on January 27–28 that shipments were "paused," calling it a sovereign operational decision . By February 9, she confirmed exports to Cuba remained suspended as Mexico tried to avoid U.S. backlash . On May 1, 2026, Trump escalated from tariff threats to blocking sanctions targeting foreign banks and Cuba's energy, financial, mining, and security sectors .

Humanitarian consequences

Cuba has been devastated by the fuel blockade. On May 14, 2026, Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy announced the country had entirely run out of diesel and fuel oil, declaring the national power grid in a "critical" condition with "no reserves" . The worst rolling blackouts in decades have hit Havana, with power outages reaching up to 22 hours daily in some areas . Nationwide grid failures have become routine . All non-essential public services, including schools, have been repeatedly suspended; bus and train services halted; and the public sector shifted to a four-day workweek . Hospital admissions and surgical procedures have been severely restricted — more than 50,000 surgeries were postponed in February 2026 alone . The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned in February 2026 of potential humanitarian "collapse" if oil supplies are not restored . The UN resident coordinator in Cuba, Francisco Pichón, said the country "has gone for more than three months without sufficient fuel" and the consequences "continue to deepen every day" . The UN launched a $94.1 million emergency humanitarian action plan in March 2026, including a fuel traceability mechanism to direct oil only to critical services .

Prospects for relief: uncertain

Mexican restart: Sheinbaum's June 22 announcement is the most positive signal yet, but faces the same U.S. pressure that halted shipments in January. The Trump administration's May 2026 blocking sanctions make any resumption a direct target for U.S. retaliation . Sheinbaum's new plan to use private companies rather than state-owned Pemex may be an attempt to avoid triggering sanctions, but it remains unclear whether this approach will work . Russian shipments: Limited fuel supplies from Russia have been reported as arriving, but the volume is insufficient to meaningfully address the crisis . Only one oil shipment — a Russian tanker carrying 730,000 barrels — reached Cuba since the collapse of Venezuelan supplies, and that was consumed in one month . Commercial deals: No confirmed commercial deals from other sources have materialized at scale. The combination of U.S. secondary sanctions, tanker insurance risks, and Cuba's lack of hard currency have deterred most non-state actors .

Key takeaway: Mexico wants to resume shipments and has publicly committed to doing so, but Trump's tariff threats and May 2026 blocking sanctions remain the decisive barrier. Without a diplomatic resolution or a sanctions waiver, near-term relief for Cuba — which has already run out of diesel and fuel oil — appears unlikely.