Is the Strait of Hormuz Open or Closed? Conflicting Claims, Real Traffic, and a Fragile Recovery

Vessel-Tracking Data: 71 Transits, LNG and Crude Carriers

MarineTraffic reported on Monday, June 22, that it recorded 71 confirmed transits through the Strait of Hormuz from June 19 to June 21—a sharp rebound after the initial reopening under the interim deal . During that period, vessel traffic included Qatari LNG tankers and crude carriers, consistent with the gradual return of commercial shipping that began around June 18 . Earlier in the week, Bloomberg reported that five laden oil tankers carrying a combined 8 million barrels of crude were seen moving through the strait . Kpler data showed that over 20 oil tankers had navigated the Strait since the U.S. and Iran began restoring commercial routes, with traffic hitting its highest level since June 2 on Thursday, June 18 . Argus Media had noted on June 15 that initial traffic was flat immediately after the deal announcement, with shipowners waiting for the formal signing on June 19 before committing vessels; the June 19–21 surge confirmed that hesitation was temporary .

Ongoing Concerns: Demining, Permit Controls, and Below-Normal Volumes

Despite the rebound, the recovery remains fragile and below pre-conflict norms. Demining risks and the need for mine-clearance operations in the strait remain a concern. The DeepDraft maritime brief described the operating environment as "controlled movement" requiring ship-to-ship transfers off Oman and Fujairah, permit layers from Iran, and ongoing mine-clearance uncertainty . CNBC reported that while traffic on June 18 reached its highest point since June 2, volumes were still below normal benchmarks for the chokepoint, and many shipowners remained cautious about war risk insurance and crew safety . Some operators reported that Iran required advance permits or coordination, even as the U.S. military guaranteed safe passage, adding friction to the normalization process . Insider Intelligence from the International Trade Council described the strait's status as "open in practice, but no longer routine in operation" .

Brent Crude: Spike to $82.30, Then Retreat

Oil markets reacted sharply to the mixed signals. On June 20, the day Iran announced the renewed closure, Brent crude spiked to $82.30 per barrel on perpetual futures markets and spot trading platforms, as traders priced in the geopolitical risk . On June 21, Brent crude edged up slightly (+0.67%) to around $81.11, with an intraday high of $82.30, as uncertainty persisted over whether diplomatic talks in Switzerland would hold . On June 22, Brent dropped 1.6% to $79.30 and later settled around $79.03, near its lowest level since early March, as market sentiment shifted toward expectations that the negotiations would succeed and the strait would remain open . The NYT reported that oil prices saw a "slight increase while stock values experienced a minor decline on Sunday, as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz persisted, highlighting the difficulties in reestablishing energy shipments" . Bank of America issued a note on June 18 projecting that a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could lower Brent's 2026 average to $82/bbl (down from a prior forecast of $93), with the range expected in the $70–$80 band for most of the second half of 2026 .

Diplomatic Track: Vance in Switzerland

JD Vance met with Iranian officials in Switzerland on June 21 for talks on Iran's nuclear program and to advance the interim peace deal, even while Iran's renewed closure declaration was still fresh . The June 14 interim agreement reportedly required Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz fully within 30 days and required the U.S. to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports . Vance characterized the diplomatic process as active: "From my conversations this morning with Jared and Steve, it appears that progress is being made" .

Conclusion: The Strait of Hormuz is functionally open as of June 22–23, with commercial traffic recovering to 71 transits over three days, but the recovery is not yet fully normalized. Demining, permit friction, and below-baseline volumes persist. Brent crude spiked to $82.30 on the closure announcement but has since fallen back to the ~$79 level as diplomatic talks advance. The situation remains highly sensitive to the outcome of U.S.-Iran negotiations in Switzerland and to any further military escalation involving Israel and Lebanon.