Asia Fuel Price Crash: Country-by-Country Cuts After the US-Iran Deal

The US-Iran interim peace deal signed on June 18, 2025—which reopened the Strait of Hormuz and lifted the U.S. blockade on Iranian oil—triggered broad fuel price declines across Asia as Brent crude dropped to ~$77.83/barrel and WTI fell 2.7% , with over 60 million barrels of stranded crude beginning to flow again . Here is the country-by-country breakdown and the key risk factors.

Confirmed Price Declines

Taiwan — CPC Corp. ended an 11-week price freeze on June 20, announcing gasoline will drop NT$1.0 per liter and diesel NT$0.7 per liter starting June 23, reflecting reduced upward pressure from international crude prices . The government's "dual price-smoothing" mechanism, which had kept prices frozen during the conflict, was lifted as global conditions stabilized .

South Korea — Gasoline and diesel prices fell for a fifth consecutive week in the third week of June. The national average gasoline price dropped to 2,009.2 won per liter, down 0.7 won from the previous week, as Dubai crude weakened on the back of the US-Iran deal . Diesel prices similarly fell by 0.7 won to 2,004.1 won per liter . The declines followed four previous weeks of gradual drops driven by falling international oil prices .

Philippines — Industry estimates and the Department of Energy project a rollback of P7.50 to P9.50 per liter for diesel and P4 to P5 per liter for gasoline in the week starting June 23, with one source citing a possible P9.50/liter diesel cut and P5/liter gasoline cut based on four trading days of global price data . The DOE noted that while the deal is positive, the full pass-through to consumers will be gradual .

Outlook Risks and Uncertainties

Interim deal fragility and Israeli-Hezbollah risk. The agreement signed on June 18 is a preliminary framework, not a final peace treaty, and the fate of Iran's nuclear program was left to further negotiations . While the Strait of Hormuz is now open, the broader Middle East security picture remains volatile. The deal does not directly address the Israel-Hezbollah front, and any renewed escalation there could reintroduce a risk premium into oil prices. Analysts noted that the "risk premium" on crude has shifted but not disappeared, as the interim nature of the deal means supply disruptions remain a tail risk .

Slow consumer relief. Despite the sharp drop in Brent crude toward pre-war levels (~$70–80/barrel), the U.S. Department of Energy indicated that meaningful relief at American gasoline pumps will take 6 to 12 months to materialize . This is because domestic U.S. fuel prices lag crude movements due to refinery margins, distribution bottlenecks, and the time needed for lower-priced crude to work through supply chains. The Philippine DOE similarly noted that while the deal is positive, the full pass-through to consumers will be gradual .

Asia oil glut on the horizon. The reopening of Hormuz released over 60 million barrels of crude that had been stuck in the Persian Gulf, creating the potential for a supply overhang that could keep downward pressure on crude prices in the near term . However, this also means that any disruption to the interim deal—from renewed Israeli-Hezbollah hostilities or breakdown of US-Iran talks—could quickly reverse the declines, as the market would reprice supply risk sharply upward.