Earlier BofA reports from May–June 2026 cited $41 billion in global GDP impact from OpenEconomics . The $45 billion figure — with the Eras Tour comparison — appeared in a June 20 Barron's/AOL dispatch, likely reflecting a slightly different methodology or more recent estimate .

BMO: Up to $81 Billion in Broader Activity

BMO Economics projects the tournament could add up to $81 billion to U.S. quarterly GDP — a much broader figure encompassing wider economic activity tied to the 16 host cities . The U.S. is expected to capture roughly four-fifths of total fan spending across North America, driven by its higher concentration of host cities and larger tourism infrastructure . BMO characterizes the overall impact across North America as a "modest lift" to GDP via tourism and hospitality inflows, not a structural economic shift .

Allianz Trade: $9 Billion in Direct North American GDP

Allianz Trade estimates a more conservative direct impact of approximately $9 billion in GDP across North America during the June–July 2026 window, driven by 6.5 million attendees including 2.6 million international visitors . Other sources provide relevant U.S.-specific figures: CNBC reports the tournament could generate $14 billion in spending and add $17 billion to U.S. GDP . Interactive Investor cites $30.5 billion in output and $17.2 billion in GDP for the U.S. . The specific $6.1B U.S. / $1.7B Mexico / $1.3B Canada breakdown from Allianz Trade was not confirmed in the searched sources.

UK: £7.6 Billion Spending Surge, but a Productivity Hangover

Analysis from money.co.uk projects a £7.6 billion net gain to the UK economy between May and July 2026, driven by food, drink, and hospitality spending . Food and drink revenues are forecast to rise 9.3% during the tournament period . Pub bookings surged nearly 300% (293%) for England matches . The Independent reported pub arrivals up 293% year-on-year for England's opener . BBC data showed an even earlier pub booking surge of 186% year-on-year for some venues . Hospitality sector bookings are up roughly 64% year-on-year across the wider sector .

The downside: analysts warn that late-night match viewing could lead to widespread "sickies" (unplanned absences) and workplace productivity losses costing the UK economy billions — partially offsetting the spending gain .

Cautionary Notes From the Banks Themselves

• BMO describes the North American GDP lift as "modest" and temporary — tourism inflows and hospitality spending, not a structural economic shift .
• Deutsche Bank assesses the World Cup's impact as delivering "significant but limited short-term economic and sectoral benefits" across North America .
• Geopolitical risks: Analysts note that war and soaring oil prices could threaten the projected World Cup economic boom .
• Methodology is everything: The gap between BofA's $41–45B global GDP figure, BMO's $81B U.S. quarterly activity figure, and Allianz Trade's $9B North America direct GDP figure reflects fundamentally different approaches — GDP contribution vs. broader economic activity vs. direct six-week tournament impact. The range doesn't mean the forecasts are wrong; it means they answer different questions.

Earlier BofA reports from May–June 2026 cited $41 billion in global GDP impact from OpenEconomics . The $45 billion figure — with the Eras Tour comparison — appeared in a June 20 Barron's/AOL dispatch, likely reflecting a slightly different methodology or more recent estimate .

BMO: Up to $81 Billion in Broader Activity

BMO Economics projects the tournament could add up to $81 billion to U.S. quarterly GDP — a much broader figure encompassing wider economic activity tied to the 16 host cities . The U.S. is expected to capture roughly four-fifths of total fan spending across North America, driven by its higher concentration of host cities and larger tourism infrastructure . BMO characterizes the overall impact across North America as a "modest lift" to GDP via tourism and hospitality inflows, not a structural economic shift .

Allianz Trade: $9 Billion in Direct North American GDP

Allianz Trade estimates a more conservative direct impact of approximately $9 billion in GDP across North America during the June–July 2026 window, driven by 6.5 million attendees including 2.6 million international visitors . Other sources provide relevant U.S.-specific figures: CNBC reports the tournament could generate $14 billion in spending and add $17 billion to U.S. GDP . Interactive Investor cites $30.5 billion in output and $17.2 billion in GDP for the U.S. . The specific $6.1B U.S. / $1.7B Mexico / $1.3B Canada breakdown from Allianz Trade was not confirmed in the searched sources.

UK: £7.6 Billion Spending Surge, but a Productivity Hangover

Analysis from money.co.uk projects a £7.6 billion net gain to the UK economy between May and July 2026, driven by food, drink, and hospitality spending . Food and drink revenues are forecast to rise 9.3% during the tournament period . Pub bookings surged nearly 300% (293%) for England matches . The Independent reported pub arrivals up 293% year-on-year for England's opener . BBC data showed an even earlier pub booking surge of 186% year-on-year for some venues . Hospitality sector bookings are up roughly 64% year-on-year across the wider sector .

The downside: analysts warn that late-night match viewing could lead to widespread "sickies" (unplanned absences) and workplace productivity losses costing the UK economy billions — partially offsetting the spending gain .

Cautionary Notes From the Banks Themselves

• BMO describes the North American GDP lift as "modest" and temporary — tourism inflows and hospitality spending, not a structural economic shift .
• Deutsche Bank assesses the World Cup's impact as delivering "significant but limited short-term economic and sectoral benefits" across North America .
• Geopolitical risks: Analysts note that war and soaring oil prices could threaten the projected World Cup economic boom .
• Methodology is everything: The gap between BofA's $41–45B global GDP figure, BMO's $81B U.S. quarterly activity figure, and Allianz Trade's $9B North America direct GDP figure reflects fundamentally different approaches — GDP contribution vs. broader economic activity vs. direct six-week tournament impact. The range doesn't mean the forecasts are wrong; it means they answer different questions.