US-Iran Deal Triggers Fuel Price Drop Across Southeast Asia

Projected rollback ranges per liter (June 23)

• Diesel: P7.50 to P9.50 per liter
• Gasoline: P3 to P5 per liter
• Kerosene: P9 to P11 per liter

These figures come from multiple independent and official sources. The Philippine Daily Inquirer reported the diesel range based on the first four trading days of the week, while GMA News cited DOE Oil Industry Management Bureau Director Rino Abad providing the gasoline and kerosene estimates . The Philippine Star confirmed that the DOE expects a substantial, if not record, rollback, with Abad stating the magnitude makes reversal unlikely .

Important caveat: Prices remain higher than pre-crisis levels
While the rollback is large, DOE Director Abad noted that prices will not return to the levels seen before the Strait of Hormuz crisis. He estimated that after the adjustment, gasoline will likely be in the P60–P70 per liter range, with diesel in the P70–P80 range — still above the pre-war P50–P60 levels .

Vietnam: Fuel Prices Have Already Plunged Up to 34% from March Peaks

Vietnam has experienced an even sharper correction. The country's pump prices hit record highs in late March and early April 2026, when the Strait of Hormuz closure was most acute. Since then, they have fallen dramatically, with the latest cuts implemented on June 18 .

Declines from record peaks (as of June 18, 2026)

Source: VietnamNet

The Vietnamese government also took aggressive fiscal measures to stabilize prices, including suspending environmental protection tax, VAT, and special consumption tax on gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel on March 27, which alone cut gasoline prices by 19% at the time .

Global Oil Markets: Brent Crude Below $78, Nearing Pre-War Levels

The U.S.-Iran deal has erased nearly all the war-related gains in crude prices. The 14-point memorandum of understanding includes a 60-day negotiation period, during which Iran will allow toll-free transit through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively reversing the supply disruption .

Key price movements (June 14–19, 2026)

• Brent crude fell over 15% from the week before the deal, settling at $77.83–$77.91/barrel on June 18, the lowest since early March .
• WTI crude dropped to $74.70–$74.99/barrel .
• This brings Brent within striking distance of its pre-war close of $72.28/barrel on February 27, before the conflict began .

Major banks and analysts have revised their forecasts downward. Goldman Sachs expected oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to recover to about 70% of pre-war levels, while J.P. Morgan projected Brent averaging around $60/barrel in 2026 . A Bloomberg Intelligence survey found nearly 60% of participants expected Brent below $70/barrel by end of 2025 .

Country-by-Country Outlook Across Southeast Asia

Philippines — The DOE has indicated that if the ceasefire holds, further large rollbacks are possible in subsequent weeks, but prices are unlikely to return fully to pre-crisis levels without sustained stability in the Middle East .

Vietnam — As a net importer of refined products, Vietnam is especially sensitive to the Singapore benchmark (MOPS). The 24 price adjustments recorded during the crisis period were the highest frequency on record, but with the Strait reopening, the trend has decisively turned downward .

Singapore & regional benchmark — Refined product prices in Asia fell across the board immediately after news of the interim deal. According to OPIS, the August Brent swap contract slipped to $83.64/barrel, and fuel oil swaps also declined . The Business Times noted that the interim deal included the full resumption of maritime traffic "with no charge" in the Strait of Hormuz, which was a key driver of the sell-off .