Russia's port strikes are cutting Ukraine's grain exports by a third—here are the numbers

Escalating Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports and grain vessels have severely reduced Ukraine's grain export capacity, damaged terminal infrastructure, and are swelling carryover stocks — with officials now warning that monthly grain shipments could be cut by more than a third if the attacks persist .

How much could exports fall?

Industry officials and executives say increased Russian attacks on seaports and vessels could cut monthly grain shipments by more than one-third (or "up to a third") . Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskyi told RBC-Ukraine that strikes periodically slash monthly agricultural exports by 20–30% . With Odesa port throughput having hit 6 million tons per month in calmer periods, a reduction of a third removes roughly 2 million tons per month from global grain markets .

The December 2025 slump

Ukraine's wheat exports fell ~25% in December 2025, and corn exports dropped ~13%, as Russia dramatically escalated port attacks following Vladimir Putin's warning to "cut Ukraine off from the sea" . Russian strikes damaged 13 civilian vessels in December alone, mostly bulk carriers used for grain . That represents nearly 10% of all ships damaged since the start of the war four years ago, according to Reuters calculations . Total grain exports in December fell 16% year-on-year, per Ukrainian consultancy UkrAgroConsult .

First-half marketing year volumes (July–December 2025)

According to State Customs Service data cited by the USDA FAS, Ukraine exported 7.8 MMT of wheat and 1.3 MMT of barley in the first half of MY2025/26 — a pace 30% slower than the same period in MY2024/25 . From October 2025 to February 2026, total grain exports reached 10.6 million tons, down 10% year-on-year . Overall, grain exports in the first half of the 2025/26 season were 29% lower, averaging 2.5 million tons monthly compared to 3.6 million tons the previous year .

Drone escalation in 2026

Ukraine said Russia used more than 800 drones against port infrastructure in the first four months of 2026 — over 10 times the number in the same period of 2025 . In 2024, 36 Russian attacks on port infrastructure were recorded; in 2025, that number reached 96, according to the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority . Since the start of the full-scale war, 651 port infrastructure facilities have been damaged, with 325 of those occurring in 2025 alone .

Infrastructure damage and terminal losses

Port terminal operators in the Odesa region have suffered mounting financial losses from repeated strikes. Private operators say they cannot manage the losses independently . Cumulative losses for port terminals since the start of the war stand at $1.5 billion, according to industry unions . In 2023, strikes destroyed 60,000 tonnes of grain and took a "considerable amount" of export infrastructure offline, per then-Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi . The pattern has intensified since late 2025 . In one August 2023 attack on the Danube River port of Izmail, a high-ranking official said the port's export capacity had diminished by 15%, with 13,000 metric tons of grain lost .

Carryover stocks are piling up

Ending corn stocks jumped sharply to 4.3 million tons versus just 606,000 tons a year earlier, reflecting the export bottleneck . UkrAgroConsult reported that carryover grain stocks could more than double ahead of the 2026/27 season, calling high carryover "the biggest negative factor" for the coming season . Carryover wheat stocks alone may reach 5 million tons according to UkrAgroConsult, and carryover wheat stocks sat at 2.97 million tons through February 2026 . UkrAgroConsult estimates grains opening stocks could increase by more than 143% to about 10.7 million tons versus 2025/26, the second-largest level of carryover in recent years, exceeded only by the 2022/23 season when a full blockade of Ukrainian seaports was in effect .

Global supply chain impact

Ukraine relies on Black Sea ports in Odesa for ~90% of agricultural exports . The export slowdown is already straining global grain supply chains, particularly for import-dependent countries in the Middle East and North Africa . Over 60% of Ukrainian wheat exports are now directed to MENA markets, primarily Egypt and Algeria . Before the escalation, the maritime corridor had moved 100 million tonnes of grain since its launch in September 2023, including 38.1 million tonnes in 2025 alone .