Strait of Hormuz Reopening: 4 Critical Challenges Limiting Ship Traffic After the U.S.-Iran Deal

Mine Clearance Timelines Vary by 140 Days

There is a significant gap between industry estimates and the Pentagon:

The 140-day gap between industry and Pentagon figures represents enormous potential cost for regional economies — estimated at $27–30 billion for Saudi Arabia alone .

War-Risk Insurance Costs Remain Near Crisis Levels

Insurance costs are a hidden blockade keeping ships at anchor:

• Pre-February 28 baseline: ~0.025% of hull value per transit (roughly $20,000–$25,000 for a typical tanker) .
• During the conflict (peak): War risk premiums soared to 3–10% of hull value per transit, a 1,100–3,900% increase, translating to $4 million–$14 million per single transit .
• As of mid-June 2026: Premiums remain near these elevated levels. Even under a naval escort or post-MoU framework, insurers are not yet materially reducing rates, because the mine threat and risk of accidental detonation persist .

Massive Backlog of Stranded Ships and Mariners

The number of immobilized vessels has grown throughout the conflict:

• Earlier in the crisis (March): ~150 vessels were reported stranded at the Strait .
• By late April: The figure grew to roughly 2,000 vessels immobilized across the broader Persian Gulf .
• By early June: ~100 container ships were still trapped in the Arabian Gulf specifically .
• By mid-June: A senior US official cited more than 1,550 vessels with about 22,500 mariners inside the Persian Gulf awaiting clearance .

Expert Estimates for Return to Pre-February 28 Traffic Levels

• El País, citing maritime industry experts: "It won't be until the end of the year that we'll return to pre-war traffic levels in the Strait of Hormuz." Factors cited: mine clearance, damaged port infrastructure, broken supply chains, and crew repatriation .
• S&P Global / shipping groups (June 18): Normal traffic requires mines cleared, the Traffic Separation Scheme restored, and coordinated transit rules — all of which are weeks to months away .
• Consensus range: A phased return starting in 1–2 months (limited, convoy-based transits), with full normalization by late Q4 2026 or early Q1 2027 — roughly 6–7 months from the signing date .