Strait of Hormuz Reopening: 4 Critical Challenges Limiting Ship Traffic After the U.S.-Iran Deal

The U.S. and Iran electronically signed a 14-article memorandum of understanding on June 17, 2026, ending 110 days of hostilities and mandating the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic . However, as of June 18–19, the waterway remains far from fully operational. Here is what stands between the deal and a working shipping lane.

Early Ship Transits Remain Largely Non-Commercial

Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, no major commercial resumption has occurred. President Trump claimed on June 15 that vessels had begun transiting via a "southern highway" (likely a portion of the Traffic Separation Scheme), but the IRGC Navy stated it had not issued any transit permits over the prior 96 hours .

Major shipping organizations — BIMCO, ICS, INTERTANKO, and INTERCARGO — said on June 18 that traffic will only return to normal when mines are cleared and traditional routes restored, and they called for clarity on transit rules . Shipowners remain deeply cautious, deterred by high war risk premiums and the lack of a verifiable formal treaty . U.S. warships began a new phase of mine clearance on June 16 , but commercial vessels are not yet following.

Mine Clearance Timelines Vary by 140 Days

There is a significant gap between industry estimates and the Pentagon:

Source	Estimate	Detail
Maritime industry (BIMCO, MARISKS, Lloyd's List)	40–50 days	Based on operational assessments of the minefield
Iran (under the MoU)	30 days	Iran agreed to demine the chokepoint within 30 days
U.S. Pentagon	Up to 6 months	A much more conservative estimate

The 140-day gap between industry and Pentagon figures represents enormous potential cost for regional economies — estimated at $27–30 billion for Saudi Arabia alone .

War-Risk Insurance Costs Remain Near Crisis Levels

Insurance costs are a hidden blockade keeping ships at anchor:

• Pre-February 28 baseline: ~0.025% of hull value per transit (roughly $20,000–$25,000 for a typical tanker) .
• During the conflict (peak): War risk premiums soared to 3–10% of hull value per transit, a 1,100–3,900% increase, translating to $4 million–$14 million per single transit .
• As of mid-June 2026: Premiums remain near these elevated levels. Even under a naval escort or post-MoU framework, insurers are not yet materially reducing rates, because the mine threat and risk of accidental detonation persist .

Massive Backlog of Stranded Ships and Mariners

The number of immobilized vessels has grown throughout the conflict:

• Earlier in the crisis (March): ~150 vessels were reported stranded at the Strait .
• By late April: The figure grew to roughly 2,000 vessels immobilized across the broader Persian Gulf .
• By early June: ~100 container ships were still trapped in the Arabian Gulf specifically .
• By mid-June: A senior US official cited more than 1,550 vessels with about 22,500 mariners inside the Persian Gulf awaiting clearance .

Expert Estimates for Return to Pre-February 28 Traffic Levels

• El País, citing maritime industry experts: "It won't be until the end of the year that we'll return to pre-war traffic levels in the Strait of Hormuz." Factors cited: mine clearance, damaged port infrastructure, broken supply chains, and crew repatriation .
• S&P Global / shipping groups (June 18): Normal traffic requires mines cleared, the Traffic Separation Scheme restored, and coordinated transit rules — all of which are weeks to months away .
• Consensus range: A phased return starting in 1–2 months (limited, convoy-based transits), with full normalization by late Q4 2026 or early Q1 2027 — roughly 6–7 months from the signing date .