Which Central Banks Raised Rates on War-Driven Inflation? ECB, SNB, and Taiwan's Decisions in 2026

The Swiss National Bank: Holding at Zero with a Currency Shield

The SNB took a deliberately different path. It kept its policy rate at 0% at both its March and June 2026 meetings, extending what was already the fourth consecutive hold since mid-2025 . The bank acknowledged that higher energy prices from the Strait of Hormuz disruption had pushed up short-term inflation — its June forecast raised the 2026 inflation projection from 0.5% to 0.6% . But the SNB concluded that medium-term inflationary pressures remained "virtually unchanged" . Its primary tool for managing the geopolitical shock was not a rate hike but currency intervention. "Given the conflict in the Middle East, the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased," it said, aiming to prevent a rapid, disruptive appreciation of the Swiss franc that could damage the export-reliant economy . Safe-haven flows had already boosted the franc since the war began, partly offsetting the upward pressure of higher oil prices on Swiss inflation .

Taiwan's Central Bank: A Tightening Bias, but No Action

Taiwan's CBC held its benchmark discount rate at 2.00% at both its March and June 2026 quarterly meetings, extending a pause that had lasted for nine straight quarters going back to March 2024 . The decision was unanimous and matched the predictions of all 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg and all 29 surveyed by LSEG . Like the SNB, the CBC revised its inflation forecast upward — it raised its 2026 CPI projection from 1.63% to 1.80%, estimating that the conflict-driven rise in oil prices would add 0.52 percentage points to inflation . The bank explicitly warned that the war posed a key downside risk to the global and domestic economy and signaled it was leaning toward a "tightening bias" . Yet it chose to wait, wanting to assess the full economic fallout before committing to a rate move . The decision was also supported by Taiwan's booming tech exports — the bank sharply raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 7.28% — which gave it room to hold .

Key Takeaways

• Only the ECB has actually raised rates among the three central banks scrutinized here, doing so by 25 basis points on June 11, 2026, in a unanimous vote tied directly to the Middle East conflict.
• The SNB and the CBC both held steady at 0% and 2.00% respectively, despite acknowledging that energy prices were pushing inflation higher in the short term.
• The SNB favored currency intervention over rate changes as its main policy response, reflecting Switzerland's unique exposure to safe-haven currency inflows.
• Taiwan's CBC raised its inflation forecast and adopted a tightening bias but opted to preserve policy space, supported by strong export-led growth in tech manufacturing.
• The divergence in policy responses underscores how different economic structures — from safe-haven currency dynamics to tech-export strength — shaped each central bank's calculation of whether war-driven inflation was a problem worth fighting with higher rates.

As of mid-2026, these three central banks illustrate the range of possible responses: one hiked, two held, and all three made their decisions with an eye on a conflict whose duration no forecaster could confidently predict.