6 Reasons Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Won't Resume Quickly After the US-Iran Deal

2. War-Risk Insurance Remains at Extreme Multiples

Even after the peace deal, marine war-risk premiums remain 30 to 4,000 times above pre-conflict levels . Before the crisis, a typical war-risk premium was about 0.001%–0.25% of a vessel's value per transit. At the peak, those rates surged to between 1% and 7.5% — translating to insurance bills of $3 million to $8 million for a single large tanker voyage . As one underwriter put it, premiums are "quick to go up and slow to come down" . Insurers say they need months of sustained stability, plus demonstrated safe transit, before restoring normal cover . For shipowners, the economics of each transit remain painfully uncertain.

3. Unclear Chain of Command and Clearance Procedures

In late May 2026, the New York Times reported that shipping companies still did not know whom to contact for navigation approval, what routes are designated safe, or what authority will manage traffic through the reopening strait . Major shipowners, traders, and oil producers are still seeking basic clarity on the deal's operational terms . Questions include whether there will be a transit fee for the strait, the timing and amount of frozen Iranian funds to be released, and specific conditions for resuming shipping . This lack of detail creates a fog of uncertainty that delays decisions.

4. Stranded and Mispositioned Vessels Need to Be Repositioned

With the strait effectively closed for more than 100 days, a fleet of approximately 1,500 vessels has been immobilized in the Persian Gulf . These ships are scattered across anchorages, their crews may have been rotated or demobilized, and commercial schedules are broken. It will take weeks simply to reposition vessels, re-crew them, and determine which ships go first . On June 17, three Iranian tankers carrying nearly 5 million barrels of crude became the first to exit the US blockade in two months — but shipowners are proceeding "in wary disbelief" .

5. Goldman Sachs: Oil Flows May Only Recover to 70% of Pre-War Levels

In a June 17 note titled "70% of Pre-War Hormuz Flows Might Become the New 100%," Goldman Sachs analysts led by Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby estimated that flows through the strait may never fully return to pre-conflict volume . The reason: regional producers have already shifted to alternative export routes — including pipelines to Yanbu (Saudi Arabia), Fujairah (UAE), Ceyhan (Turkey), and the Gulf of Oman — reducing their dependence on the Hormuz chokepoint . Goldman calculates that full normalization of Gulf exports to pre-war levels of 23 million barrels per day could be achieved with Hormuz flows recovering to just 70% of pre-war throughput .

After the deal, Goldman accelerated its timeline for export normalization by one month — now expecting Gulf exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July 2026, with oil production recovery following by October . But that is still two months after the signing, and the bank had previously pushed back its forecast from late June to late August before the deal was reached .

6. The 60-Day Interim Negotiating Window Creates Fundamental Uncertainty

The current deal is a preliminary memorandum of understanding — a 60-day truce, not a final peace . Broader issues, including Iran's nuclear program, remain unresolved, and if talks fail, the strait could be closed again . A senior US government official cautioned that, while traffic should pick up significantly in the near term, a return to pre-conflict transits "will take longer than a few weeks as some owners take a caution-first approach" .

What the Timelines Look Like

At the optimistic end, Kpler — a trade-data firm — estimates that ship traffic through the strait could reach about 40 vessels per day within a month (compared to roughly 100 per day before the conflict) — or about half of pre-war levels . But most sources — from Goldman Sachs to maritime security officials — agree that full normalization will take at least until late July to August 2026, and even then may achieve only 70% of pre-war throughput . Physical crude markets are expected to remain "tight through the summer months" .

In short, the headlines say "Let the oil flow," but the reality for shipowners, insurers, and oil traders is: not yet, not fast, and not all the way back.