What Was in the US-Iran Interim Peace Deal, and Why Experts Warn It’s Fragile

Immediate Market Reaction: A Global Relief Rally

Confirmation of the framework triggered a sharp unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up in commodity and equity markets since the war began.

• Oil Prices Tumbled: Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell more than 5% to $82.84 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 4.7% to $80.89. Both benchmarks hit three-month lows as the prospect of restored Gulf exports eased fears of a prolonged supply crisis.
• Asian Stocks Surged: Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped between 5% and 5.5%. South Korea’s KOSPI led regional gains with a surge of up to 5.7%, while Taiwan’s TAIEX and Australia’s ASX 200 rose sharply. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index saw more modest gains.
• Broader Risk-On Move: S&P 500 futures rallied roughly 0.8%, the U.S. dollar weakened, and bonds advanced as investors began to price in diminished inflationary pressures and a reduced need for further central bank rate hikes. European stock indices, including Germany's DAX and pan-European benchmarks, also hit record highs following the news.

The Lingering Risks: Why the Strait Isn't Open Yet

Despite President Trump’s claim that vessels had already begun moving through the strait’s “southern highway,” the shipping industry and security analysts have pushed back forcefully.

• The Naval Mine Threat: It remains uncertain whether Iran deployed naval mines in the Strait. In March, U.S. Central Command targeted 16 Iranian vessels it said were involved in mine-laying activities, but the effectiveness of those strikes is unclear. A senior U.S. government official anonymously confirmed that mines would need to be removed before safe transit can resume.
• Shipping Hesitancy: Key maritime figures have warned that a political declaration does not equal safety. Jakob Larsen, head of maritime safety and security at BIMCO, the world’s largest shipping association, stated bluntly, “The declaration by President Trump that Hormuz is fully open is incorrect!” and urged ships to avoid the area. Global shippers in Asia and Europe said it could take weeks for confidence to rebuild.
• Timeline for Recovery: Clearing mines with conventional sweepers and underwater drones is a painstaking process. Maritime security sources estimate operations could take 40 to 50 days before many insurers and companies are comfortable resuming transits. Trade analysts at Kpler project that ship traffic might only recover to about half of prewar levels within the first month, even under an ideal implementation scenario.

Unresolved Geopolitical Tensions

The deal is a tentative diplomatic breakthrough, not a durable peace. Several flashpoints could unravel the fragile ceasefire.

• Israel's Position: Although the agreement calls for a halt to operations in Lebanon, it does not address Israel’s core security concerns regarding Iran's undeferred nuclear ambitions or its ballistic missile program. Israeli strikes on Beirut’s outskirts continued just before the deal’s announcement, and it remains unclear whether Israel, which is not a signatory, will abide by the ceasefire terms. This is the single most cited threat to the agreement’s durability.
• The Nuclear Wildcard: Atlantic Council analysts and other observers expressed deep skepticism, noting that deferring the nuclear question leaves the root cause of the war entirely unresolved. The 60-day diplomatic window is fragile; any breakdown in talks could trigger a rapid resumption of hostilities. One critic summarized the risk: “We have no assurances the nuclear program will ever be addressed, but Iran has shown the world it can take the global economy hostage."

Broader Economic and Geopolitical Implications

• Inflation and Central Banks: The plunge in oil prices is expected to reduce headline inflation in major economies, potentially giving the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan more flexibility to pause or even cut interest rates in the months ahead.
• China’s Economy: As the world’s largest crude importer, China is the single biggest economic beneficiary of the deal. Lower oil prices directly reduce import bills for Chinese refiners and ease producer price inflation for its vast manufacturing sector. However, the benefit is contingent on the strait’s actual, physical reopening — a process that will be measured in weeks, not days.
• Roles of Global Powers: Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif emerged as a key public mediator, announcing the deal alongside Trump. European powers (France, Germany, the UK) are poised to lead or support the follow-on nuclear negotiations. China, a quiet diplomatic backchannel during the war, has a vital economic stake in the deal’s success but has kept a low public profile.