What are the current economic impacts, forecasts, and risks of the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure on the Asia-Pacific region, as assessed by the ADB, IMF, Fitch, IEA, and other institutions, including specific effects on growth, inflation, poverty, oil imports, and fiscal out

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

• Reference scenario (April 2026 WEO): Assumes a short-lived conflict with a 19% increase in energy prices in 2026. Global growth forecast at 3.1% and headline inflation at 4.4% —a sharp reversal of the recent disinflation trend .
• Downside scenario: A longer shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz raises the prospect of a "major energy crisis," with significantly higher growth drag and inflation .
• The closure cut off access to ~20% of global oil and seaborne LNG supplies, and strikes/precautionary shutdowns reduced oil and gas output by an estimated 13 million b/d .
• MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan) growth projected to slow to just 1.4% even under the reference scenario .

Fitch Ratings

• Global growth (June 2026): Cut world growth forecast for 2026 to 2.4%, down 0.2 pp from prior, directly citing the oil shock from the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure .
• India: Cut FY27 GDP growth projection to 6.4% (from 6.7%), citing slowdown in the September and December quarters . Earlier in March, Fitch had flagged that costlier oil would slow India's growth in H1 FY27 and push inflation steadily to 4.5% by December 2026 .
• Fitch raised its near-term Brent crude price assumptions and noted that if the shock persists beyond a brief period, further downgrades would follow .

International Energy Agency (IEA)

• Called the blockage the "largest disruption in history" to oil supply .
• Global oil supply was slashed by 10.1 million b/d in March alone .
• The IEA warned the Strait's paralysis is the "greatest global energy security threat in history" .
• IEA expects global oil output to fall by ~1.5 million b/d on average in 2026 versus 2025—a ~2.6 million b/d swing from its pre-war March forecast .

OECD

• June 2026 Economic Outlook: Projected global growth slowing to 2.8% in 2026 (down from 3.4%) assuming energy prices begin subsiding by mid-2026. In a more pessimistic scenario where shipping and energy infrastructure damage persists, the slowdown would be steeper .

Wood Mackenzie

• Worst-case scenario: Global GDP growth could fall below 2% in 2026, with permanent economic scarring relative to the pre-war baseline. Brent crude could approach $200/bbl by end-2026 despite a 6 million b/d drop in global oil demand .

Allianz Research

• A sub-2-month Straits disruption would push average emerging-market inflation higher by +0.8–1.0 pp, with GDP growth impact of at least -0.5 pp for emerging markets excluding China .

Country-Level Effects

🇵🇭 Philippines

• Extreme oil import dependence: The Philippines sources 96% of its oil from the Persian Gulf, the highest ratio among the four countries .
• The blow to fuel supply is severe—fuel shortages and price spikes have already rippled through transportation, shipping, and food prices .
• Growth/Inflation outlook: No institution-specific quantified projection found for the Philippines, but as the most Gulf-dependent importer in the group, the risk to growth and inflation is acute and above regional averages.

🇯🇵 Japan

• Japan is a major crude importer from the Gulf. The closure drives up its already-high energy import bill, worsens its trade deficit, and puts pressure on the yen.
• No institution-specific growth/inflation re-forecast publicly available for Japan alone, but Japan is highly vulnerable given its near-total dependence on Middle Eastern crude. The oil shock feeds directly into higher electricity, manufacturing, and transport costs.

🇹🇭 Thailand

• Thailand sources ~74% of its oil from the Persian Gulf . Fuel shortages and rationing have emerged, and higher energy costs are passing through to flights, shipping, Grab rides, and food prices .
• ICIS (April 2026): Reported that tumbling Asian currencies against the USD, combined with crude above $100/bbl, are "hitting otherwise resilient southeast Asian economies hard," including Thailand .
• No standalone ADB/IMF/Fitch GDP revision for Thailand found in available sources, but it is among the most exposed Southeast Asian economies.

🇮🇳 India

• Fitch (June 9, 2026): Cut India's FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.4% from 6.7%, directly citing the US-Iran war .
• Fitch (March 2026): Estimated growth for FY26 at 7.5%, but flagged that costlier oil would slow India in 1H FY27 and push inflation steadily to 4.5% by December 2026 .
• India relies on the Gulf for roughly 60% of its crude imports. Higher oil prices widen its current account deficit and fuel imported inflation, straining fiscal balances as fuel subsidies or tax cuts may be needed.

Cross-Cutting Risks

• Inflation shock: A 2-month closure could add 0.8–1.0 pp to EM inflation ; the IMF expects global headline inflation of 4.4% in 2026 even in a optimistic reference scenario .
• Poverty: Higher food and fuel prices disproportionately hurt low-income households in developing Asia. The IMF warned the impact would be "disproportionately" felt by developing countries .
• Fiscal outlooks: Oil-importing Asian governments face pressure to absorb price hikes via subsidies or tax cuts, widening fiscal deficits exactly when growth is slowing.
• Currency depreciation: Asian currencies tumbling against the USD amplify imported inflation for net oil importers .
• Recession risk: Wood Mackenzie sees global GDP growth potentially falling below 2% if the closure persists , a level historically associated with global recession conditions.

Key caveat: The situation is rapidly evolving (as of mid-June 2026). Most institution forecasts assume a resolution by mid-2026; if the Strait remains closed into H2 2026, all current estimates would be revised downward significantly.