The Hormuz Blockade Is Breaking the World's Food System — and Millions Are Already Going Hungry

The Strait of Hormuz has long been recognized as the world's most important energy chokepoint, but the Iran conflict that erupted in late February 2026 has transformed it into something far more dangerous: a hunger chokepoint. The effective closure of this narrow waterway is not just an oil crisis — it is simultaneously paralyzing global fertilizer supply chains, driving up fuel costs for farmers and aid convoys alike, and starving the humanitarian system of the funding it needs to respond. The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) now warns that if the conflict continues, an additional 45 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity, bringing the global total to the highest level ever recorded .

This is not a slow-moving emergency. The blockade is occurring during the critical Northern Hemisphere spring planting season, meaning the consequences will be baked into global harvests for the rest of 2026 and into 2027. The World Trade Organization has identified fertilizers as the most urgent concern, and the International Rescue Committee calls the situation a "food security timebomb" .

The Three-Way Collapse: Fertilizer, Fuel, and Funding

The crisis operates through three interconnected shocks that are reinforcing each other in dangerous ways.

Fertilizer Markets in Freefall

The Strait of Hormuz normally carries roughly one-third of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade, including urea, ammonia, phosphate (DAP/MAP), and sulfur — a critical input for phosphate fertilizer production elsewhere . The blockade has effectively trapped this supply at a moment when farmers around the world need it most.

By mid-March 2026, urea prices had climbed above $600 per metric ton and DAP/MAP above $700 per metric ton, reflecting sharp increases from pre-crisis benchmarks . Under a "Contested Transit" scenario modeled by agricultural economists, urea could peak around $784 per short ton by July 2026 and remain above $700 per ton through November . The price shock is not limited to nitrogen fertilizers: the disruption of Gulf sulfur exports constrains phosphate producers in countries like China, Morocco, and Indonesia, amplifying global supply pressures .

For farmers, the math is brutal. In India, fertilizer firms were forced to shut down production when deprived of Qatari natural gas supplies . In Brazil, which imports over 80% of its fertilizer with heavy dependence on nitrogen and phosphate from Gulf sources, the Hormuz closure simultaneously cuts direct supply and constrains alternative suppliers like Morocco . Across Latin America, where agricultural export economies depend heavily on imported fertilizers, shortages and higher fuel costs threaten planting seasons and food production .

The Fuel Cost Cascade

The blockade is blocking roughly one-fifth of global oil and one-quarter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) . Oil prices have experienced significant volatility since the conflict began, peaking near $120 per barrel after starting the year around $60 . These price spikes ripple through every link in the food chain: farm machinery fuel, fertilizer production (LNG is a key input for nitrogen fertilizers), food transport, and humanitarian aid logistics.

The FAO reports that major Asian importers — China, India, Japan, and South Korea — have been hit hardest by fuel price increases, while import-dependent economies across South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East face the most severe food price inflation . In Ethiopia, daily necessity prices have already risen by more than 10%, and in Nepal by as much as 50% .

WFP Funding Shortfalls and Aid Cuts

The WFP entered 2026 with 318 million people already facing crisis-level hunger — more than double the 2019 figure . The agency's 2026 appeal stood at $16.2 billion, but current funding forecasts suggest it may receive only about half of what is needed — a gap of roughly $13 billion .

WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau warned that the war is amplifying this pre-existing funding crisis. Rising fuel and transport costs are making every food delivery more expensive, while simultaneously driving up local food prices and increasing the number of people who need assistance . The agency now projects it will serve 1.5 million fewer people than originally planned in 2026, and if the conflict continues for six months, more than 9 million people could lose assistance entirely .

Skau described the situation as potentially "the most severe disruption since COVID and the Ukraine war back in 2022" .

Country-by-Country Impact: Where Hunger Is Growing Fastest

The consequences of the blockade are profoundly unequal, landing hardest on import-dependent developing nations with the least capacity to absorb price shocks.

Sri Lanka — Still reeling from a prolonged debt and food crisis, Sri Lanka faces an additional 1.3 million people pushed into severe hunger as rising import costs and fertilizer shortages compound existing vulnerabilities .

Somalia — An additional 2.5 million people are projected to face severe hunger in Somalia, where roughly 6.5 million people — about a third of the population — were already expected to face crisis-level food insecurity in 2026 .

Afghanistan — The war is expected to push another 2.3 million Afghans into severe hunger, compounding an already catastrophic humanitarian situation where WFP funding cuts had previously led to children dying from severe malnutrition .

India — As the most exposed country for ammonia imports from the Gulf and a major urea importer, India faces acute fertilizer supply risks . Domestic fertilizer firms also lost Qatari gas feedstock when LNG shipments stopped .

Brazil — The world's largest agricultural exporter imports over 80% of its fertilizer, with heavy Gulf dependence for nitrogen and phosphate. The closure simultaneously eliminates direct Gulf supply and constrains Morocco's ability to serve as an alternative source .

Africa — The consequences across the African continent are especially severe. As the primary transit point for fertilizer needed by 80% of African farmers, the Strait's closure has halted approximately 30% of global nitrogen fertilizer supply. Fuel and fertilizer shortages are deepening food insecurity and creating impending economic crises, particularly for nations already struggling under heavy debt burdens . The American Progress report highlights that these disruptions coincide with drastic, abrupt cuts to U.S. humanitarian assistance that have undermined crisis response capacity .

Latin America more broadly — The region's agricultural export economies are highly exposed to both fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs, with planting seasons and food production threatened across the continent .

Humanitarian Corridors on Paper, Crisis in Practice

CENTCOM has stated it would allow humanitarian shipments — food, medical supplies, and essential goods — to pass through the Strait subject to inspection . But aid agencies report that this theoretical access is being overwhelmed by practical realities.

Soaring fuel costs, spiking insurance premiums, and operational disruptions are making aid deliveries slower and dramatically more expensive . The UN has described the situation as a "perfect storm" for the humanitarian system, noting that global aid budgets were already tightening as needs were expanding . In its 2026 appeal, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs aimed to raise $33 billion to support 135 million people, but funding has fallen far short .

Even when vessels are technically permitted to pass, the near-total withdrawal of commercial shipping insurance for the Strait means that only a limited number of vessels flagged from India, Pakistan, and China have been granted safe passage . The result is that a humanitarian corridor exists on paper but delivers far less than what is needed — and what does get through costs dramatically more.

What Happens Next

The timing of the blockade makes the food security consequences especially severe. The disruption is occurring during the critical spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere, meaning that reduced fertilizer application will translate directly into lower crop yields . Corn — the main feedstock for U.S. beef, poultry, and dairy — is particularly vulnerable, with potential knock-on effects on global food prices into 2027 .

The World Economic Forum's Chief Economists' Outlook cites "grave concerns" about disrupted food production resulting from the closure . The WFP warns that without an adequately funded humanitarian response, "it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge" .

The blockade has created a global food security crisis that will not end when tankers resume transiting the Strait. The hunger being seeded in planting seasons now will be harvested in the months ahead, and the most vulnerable countries — Sri Lanka, Somalia, Afghanistan, and import-dependent nations across Africa, South Asia, and Latin America — will bear the worst consequences.