The AI-Fueled Ascent: How ASML Became Europe’s Most Valuable Company in History

The order deluge swelled ASML’s backlog to €38.8 billion, securing production visibility well into 2027 . This effectively ended the demand debate that had clouded the stock in mid-2025. The risk flipped from “will the orders come?” to “can ASML ship fast enough?” .

Raising the Bar—Twice—on 2026 Revenue

Confidence wasn’t just visible in the order book; it was translated directly into financial guidance. On the same day as the record bookings report, ASML issued its initial 2026 revenue forecast of €34 billion to €39 billion, already surpassing the consensus analyst estimate of €35.1 billion . At the midpoint, this implied roughly 20% revenue growth from 2024 .

Then came the revision. On April 15, 2026, ASML reported first-quarter earnings that beat estimates: €8.8 billion in net sales and €2.8 billion in net income. More importantly, management raised the full-year 2026 outlook to €36 billion to €40 billion, citing “relentless AI data-center infrastructure spending” and stronger-than-expected demand from non-China customers . The midpoint of the new guidance exceeded the prior consensus, sending a clear message that the AI chip buildout was accelerating, not plateauing .

A 60% Rally and a Fearsome Reversal

ASML’s path to the $674 billion record was far from linear. In mid-2025, CEO Christophe Fouquet had warned of geopolitical uncertainty and tariff risks associated with US-China export restrictions. These fears weighed on the stock until late 2025, when a torrent of AI chip orders from TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix overwhelmed macro concerns. By early June 2026, the stock had rocketed roughly 60% year-to-date, with shares closing at €1,394 on June 1 compared to a 41% year-to-date gain .

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a broader benchmark, gained about 80% over the same period, indicating that ASML’s performance was part of a powerful sector-wide surge, but its unique monopoly on EUV tools made it the standout winner .

The Memory Catalyst: A New Investment Cycle

A critical, and perhaps underappreciated, tailwind emerged from the DRAM memory market. Morgan Stanley flagged a “vigorous expansion” cycle as chipmakers transition to advanced 1c-nm DRAM nodes. This manufacturing leap requires 5 to 6 EUV layers per wafer, a significant jump that directly multiplies demand for ASML’s most profitable systems .

The investment bank noted that this is not a temporary blip but a structural capex cycle, with long-term supply agreements from Samsung and SK Hynix underpinning the demand. Morgan Stanley first raised its price target to €1,400 from €1,000 in January 2026, citing this memory up-cycle, and kept ASML as a “Top Pick” .

The Day of the Record: Morgan Stanley Upgrades Again

On the very day ASML claimed the European crown, June 3, 2026, Morgan Stanley raised its price target to €1,660, up from €1,400, while maintaining an “overweight” rating. Analyst Lee Simpson cited greater confidence in ASML’s ability to deliver EUV systems, a concern eased by management comments at the April 2026 annual shareholder meeting . The bank’s new target was based on a forecast of €51.92 earnings per share for fiscal year 2028, using a 32x price-to-earnings multiple, implying a 29% compound annual growth rate in EPS from 2026 to 2028 .

Morgan Stanley was not alone. Following ASML’s raised guidance in April, a wave of analysts—including UBS, Citi, Deutsche Bank, and RBC Capital—lifted their targets into the €1,600 to €1,700 range. The average analyst price target rose to approximately €1,463 .

A European Market in Rotation

ASML’s milestone also signals a profound shift in the composition of European equity markets. With this record, the technology sector formally overtook healthcare, which Novo Nordisk symbolized, and luxury goods, represented by LVMH, as the most valuable sector by market capitalization in Europe .

ASML had crossed the $500 billion threshold for the first time on January 15, 2026, becoming only the third European company ever to do so, after LVMH and Novo Nordisk . By early June, it had added nearly $175 billion more, cementing the transformation of a niche equipment supplier into a pillar of the global AI infrastructure buildout.

The story behind the stock chart is one of rare strategic clarity: ASML holds a monopoly on the machines that make advanced AI chips. When every major chipmaker needs to build more, ASML names its price, and for a brief moment in June 2026, the market priced that power as the most valuable piece of Europe ever assembled.