Australia's Trade Minster Tells Europe: 'Patience Is Imperative' With China. But Can His Playbook Work?

The results were gradual but complete. A timeline of the thaw shows a steady erosion of barriers:

• February 2023: China resumes imports of Australian coal.
• August 2023: The 80.5% duties on barley are officially removed after a review and suspension of a WTO case, ending a blockade on a market once worth roughly A$1.5 billion annually .
• By Early 2024: Tariffs on Australian wine are lifted .
• December 2024: The final restrictions on live lobster exports are resolved, officially ending the trade war .

The economic recovery was dramatic. By August 2023, bilateral trade between the two nations had surged to a record annual value of approximately A$219 billion, driven by goods exports of A$194 billion and services of A$9.5 billion . The détente continued into 2025, when Australia and China agreed to a general review of their free trade agreement to further liberalize market access .

The EU’s Battlefield: A Crisis of Structure, Not Just Politics

Where Australia faced a targeted, politically motivated sanctions regime, the European Union is dealing with a problem that is far more deeply rooted in economic structure. The EU’s goods trade deficit with China hit a towering €359.9 billion in 2025, surpassing the previous year’s deficit and continuing a long-term explosion that has seen the trade imbalance increase two-and-a-half-fold in value in a decade .

This is not merely a spike. EU imports of manufactured goods from China accounted for 97.3% of total imports in 2025 , and the deficit widened further into 2026, with Beijing recording a trade surplus with the EU of US$113 billion in the first four months alone . European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has described China’s trade surplus as “simply unsustainable,” attributing it to state-subsidized industrial overcapacity that is offloading onto global markets .

Consequently, the EU’s approach has diverged sharply from Australia’s passive playbook. Brussels has opted for a defensive trade strategy:

• Tariffs: The EU has imposed definitive tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), which can reach up to 45% in some instances, following an anti-subsidy investigation .
• Import Quotas and Safeguards: The EU’s industry chief has signaled an intent to use safeguard clauses