What factors are leading oil market participants to expect Brent crude to hover around $100 per barrel over the next 12 months, and how are the U.S.–Iran conflict, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, record global inventory drawdowns, Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, and th

Market participants are also focused on low and falling inventories. Enverus says its higher-for-longer view is driven by the Hormuz closure hitting oil flows and leaving OECD crude and product stocks low, which makes the market more sensitive to any additional outage. In practice, low inventories mean fewer buffers, so each supply shock has a larger price effect.

Strategic reserve releases are helping, but they are not seen as a lasting fix. The U.S. announced a 172 million barrel SPR release to stabilize the market. But emergency stock releases are temporary, and traders see them as buying time rather than solving the underlying supply risk from disrupted Gulf flows and shut-in production.

The SPR response can even reinforce bullish sentiment if it depletes emergency buffers. Reporting on the release says U.S. SPR inventories have fallen materially as barrels were deployed, which matters because a smaller reserve leaves less policy firepower if disruptions persist or worsen.

Another reason for the $100 view is the limited production response from U.S. shale. Enverus maintained a Brent forecast of $95 for the rest of 2026 and $100 for 2027 partly because the supply response outside the disrupted region has not been strong enough to quickly offset lost barrels and tight stocks. That matters because the usual “high prices bring fast shale growth” mechanism appears weaker than in past cycles.

There is some disagreement on how durable $100 oil will be. Enverus argues Brent can average around $100 in 2027 under a higher-for-longer scenario tied to disrupted flows and low stocks. EIA is more cautious: it sees a near-term spike from Hormuz-related outages, but expects prices to ease once flows are reestablished and production recovers, with Brent falling below $90 in late 2026 and averaging $76 in 2027.