El Niño Is Likely to Form in 2026 — What Scientists Are Warning About Global Heat and Regional Impacts

Key signals driving that outlook include:

• Near‑to‑above‑average sea‑surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
• Increasing subsurface warmth in the Pacific Ocean, which often precedes El Niño formation.
• Climate models indicating the pattern could strengthen and persist through late 2026 and early 2027.

Some model projections suggest the event could become strong or even very strong, although scientists emphasize that the exact strength is still uncertain.

Why El Niño can push global temperatures higher

El Niño events typically raise global temperatures because warm Pacific waters release large amounts of heat into the atmosphere.

That warming effect would occur on top of an already exceptionally warm climate period. According to NOAA, 2024 was the hottest year in the modern global record, with average global temperatures 1.29°C above the 20th‑century average, surpassing the previous record set in 2023.

Scientists note that the 10 warmest years since 1850 have all occurred within the past decade, meaning any El Niño‑related warming is starting from an unusually high baseline.

This combination—long‑term climate warming plus an El Niño heat boost—has historically been associated with record global temperature spikes.

Europe’s heatwaves and the limits of attribution

Weather forecasters have warned that heat domes and intense heatwaves may develop in parts of Europe during late spring and summer 2026, driven by large high‑pressure systems that trap hot air over a region.

However, scientists caution that specific heatwaves cannot automatically be attributed to El Niño, especially while the event is still forming. Individual heatwaves are usually caused by short‑term atmospheric patterns, such as persistent high‑pressure ridges.

What El Niño can do is raise the background global temperature, which can increase the probability or intensity of heat extremes—but linking any single event directly to it requires detailed attribution studies.

Expected impacts in the Caribbean and Jamaica

Regional climate agencies are already warning that the developing El Niño could significantly affect the Caribbean.

Climatologists say the pattern often brings hotter and drier conditions across parts of the region, which can affect water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystems.

Authorities in Jamaica are monitoring the trend closely. The country’s Meteorological Service has warned that a developing El Niño could lead to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures across the island, increasing risks to water resources and farming.

These conditions can also intensify heat stress and increase the likelihood of drought during parts of the season.

The key uncertainty: how strong the event becomes

While confidence is high that El Niño will develop in 2026, its eventual strength remains uncertain.

Stronger events generally produce more pronounced global climate impacts, but even moderate El Niño events can significantly alter rainfall patterns, hurricane activity, and regional temperatures around the world.

For now, meteorologists say the main takeaway is simple: the climate system is shifting again, and the next El Niño could arrive during one of the warmest periods in modern climate history—raising the stakes for heat, drought, and extreme weather across multiple regions.