NOAA Says El Niño Is Likely to Form in 2026. Here’s Why Scientists Are Watching Closely

Because of these signals, NOAA has issued an “El Niño Watch,” meaning conditions are favorable for the climate pattern to develop within the next several months.

Independent forecasts from international climate centers show similar trends, with models indicating a strong likelihood that El Niño will dominate conditions through much of 2026.

Why Scientists Are Watching for a Potentially Strong Event

Some seasonal climate models and media reports have suggested the possibility of an unusually strong or even record‑level El Niño. But NOAA’s official assessment is more cautious.

What has forecasters’ attention is the rapid warming beneath the ocean surface. NOAA reports that subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have been significantly above average for several months, which can fuel the development of El Niño once that warmth rises to the surface.

Atmospheric patterns are also beginning to align with early El Niño development. Observations show westerly wind anomalies over parts of the equatorial Pacific, a pattern that can help the ocean and atmosphere reinforce each other as El Niño grows.

Even so, predicting the strength of an event months in advance is difficult—especially during the spring predictability barrier, a period when ENSO forecasts historically have larger uncertainty. Scientists therefore emphasize that strong or “super” El Niño scenarios are still speculative.

Possible Effects on the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

One of the most closely watched impacts of El Niño is its influence on tropical cyclones.

Historically, El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity because it increases vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Strong wind shear disrupts storm formation and makes it harder for hurricanes to intensify.

That relationship doesn’t guarantee a quiet season. Other factors—especially unusually warm Atlantic sea‑surface temperatures—can offset El Niño’s suppressing effect. Research has shown that even during El Niño years, storms can still form if local ocean conditions are favorable.

How El Niño Could Shift U.S. Weather Patterns

El Niño’s influence on North America typically becomes strongest during winter.

When El Niño is active, warmer waters in the equatorial Pacific alter atmospheric circulation and often shift the Pacific jet stream southward across the United States.

Historically, stronger El Niño winters have been associated with patterns such as:

• Wetter conditions across the southern U.S. and parts of California
• Increased precipitation along the West Coast and Southeast
• Warmer and drier conditions in parts of the northern U.S. and Canada

However, these are broad tendencies rather than guarantees—each El Niño develops differently, and regional outcomes can vary widely from year to year.

Global Temperature Impacts

El Niño also affects global temperatures because it releases stored heat from the tropical Pacific into the atmosphere. That additional heat can temporarily raise global average temperatures.

The World Meteorological Organization says an El Niño developing in mid‑2026 would likely influence global rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide.

Recent history shows the effect clearly: previous El Niño events have coincided with some of the warmest years on record globally. While a strong event in 2026–27 could increase the chances of new heat records, scientists stress that this outcome is not guaranteed.

The Bottom Line

Forecasts now show high confidence that El Niño will return in 2026, but much less certainty about how strong it will become.

If the event intensifies, it could reshape weather across the planet—from reducing Atlantic hurricane activity to shifting U.S. winter storms and potentially boosting global temperatures. For now, scientists say the key question isn’t whether El Niño will arrive, but how powerful it ultimately becomes.