Why Analysts Raised Alibaba Price Targets After a Profit Collapse in Fiscal Q4 2026

Alibaba’s fiscal Q4 2026 earnings looked weak at first glance: profitability plunged and earnings missed expectations. Yet the market reaction was surprisingly positive. Several Wall Street analysts raised their price targets after the report because the company’s cloud and AI businesses showed accelerating growth, suggesting Alibaba’s aggressive spending could build a powerful long‑term platform.

The results highlight a key debate around the company: whether today’s heavy AI investment will eventually convert into durable profits.

The headline numbers from Alibaba’s Q4 2026 results

Alibaba reported revenue of about RMB243.38 billion (around $35.3 billion) for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, representing modest year‑over‑year growth.

However, profitability dropped sharply. One market data report said the company delivered about $0.61 in quarterly earnings per share, far below analyst expectations.

Margins were pressured by a surge in spending tied to AI infrastructure, new computing capacity, and broader strategic investments. Adjusted EBITDA fell roughly 84% year over year, reflecting the cost of scaling these initiatives.

In short: revenue held up, but profits collapsed due to investment intensity.

Cloud and AI growth changed the narrative

The most important takeaway for investors was the strength of Alibaba’s cloud and AI businesses.

Key indicators included:

• Cloud Intelligence Group external revenue grew about 40% year over year.
• AI‑related product revenue posted triple‑digit growth for the 11th consecutive quarter.
• AI products now account for roughly 30% of cloud external revenue, showing increasing commercial adoption.

CEO Eddie Wu said Alibaba’s full‑stack AI strategy—spanning foundation models, cloud infrastructure, and applications—has moved “from incubation to commercialization at scale.”

For analysts, those metrics suggested Alibaba’s cloud platform could become a central provider of AI computing and services across China and global markets.

Why analysts raised price targets anyway

Despite the earnings miss, analysts focused on the growth trajectory of Alibaba’s AI‑driven cloud platform.

Two major firms—Barclays and Mizuho—lifted their price targets to around $195, citing accelerating cloud growth and enterprise demand for AI workloads.

The reasoning is straightforward:

• AI training and inference demand requires massive computing infrastructure.
• Cloud providers capture recurring revenue from those workloads.
• Alibaba already operates one of Asia’s largest cloud platforms.

If AI adoption continues to scale, analysts expect cloud services to become one of Alibaba’s most profitable segments over time.

Analyst ratings and market expectations

Overall analyst sentiment remains positive even after the earnings disappointment.

• A group of analysts tracking the company maintains a consensus “Buy” rating, with the majority recommending either Buy or Strong Buy.
• Price targets across the Street cluster well above the current trading price.

Following the earnings release, Alibaba shares traded around $145.69 and rose about 8% during the session, indicating investors were willing to prioritize growth potential over short‑term profitability.

Dividend and shareholder returns

Alibaba also announced shareholder returns alongside its results. The company approved an annual dividend of about $1.05 per American depositary share (ADS).

While modest relative to some global tech peers, the dividend signals that Alibaba still intends to return capital even while investing heavily in future growth.

The strategy: investing heavily in AI infrastructure

Alibaba’s leadership has made AI and cloud the company’s central strategic priorities. That means significant near‑term spending on:

• data centers and GPU infrastructure
• AI model development
• cloud platforms and enterprise AI services

These investments are designed to position Alibaba as a core provider of AI computing across industries.

The strategy mirrors moves by global tech giants that are also pouring billions into AI infrastructure to capture the next wave of cloud demand.

The key risk: turning AI growth into profits

The biggest question for investors is execution.

While cloud and AI demand is clearly growing, the company must prove it can convert that demand into sustainable, high‑margin revenue. Heavy infrastructure spending can suppress profits for years if pricing pressure or competition intensifies.

In other words, Alibaba’s earnings showed two competing realities:

• The AI business is growing rapidly.
• The cost of building it is enormous.

Whether those investments eventually produce durable profits will determine whether Wall Street’s optimism proves correct.

For now, analysts appear willing to give Alibaba time—betting that the company’s expanding AI cloud platform will become a powerful profit engine in the years ahead.