Does Bitcoin’s 90‑Day Uptrend Signal a New Bull Market?

The bearish argument: weak on‑chain signals

Not everyone agrees the rally signals a confirmed bull market.

On‑chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has highlighted several warning signs:

• CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has dropped to around 20, a level described as extremely bearish and historically associated with weak market conditions.
• Analysts say Bitcoin’s recent rally was rejected near the 200‑day moving average, around the low‑$80,000 range, a level widely used to determine long‑term trend direction.
• The structure of the rally has been compared to March 2022, when Bitcoin bounced strongly before hitting the same moving average and continuing its broader decline.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has previously warned that several on‑chain indicators point to declining liquidity and weaker demand, suggesting the market may still be in a bearish phase.

The key levels that could decide the trend

Because the signals are mixed, many analysts focus on specific price levels that could confirm whether the rebound evolves into a true bull market.

Two zones stand out:

1. The 200‑day moving average
Repeated rejections near this level suggest the long‑term trend has not fully flipped bullish yet.

2. The $88,000–$90,000 resistance band
Several analysts identify this region as a major technical barrier. A sustained breakout could indicate renewed bullish momentum.

Some on‑chain research goes further, suggesting Bitcoin must reclaim and close above roughly $88,880 before a market bottom can be considered confirmed.

Why analysts remain divided

The disagreement largely comes down to different types of indicators:

• Price action analysts focus on the unusual length of the rally and improving chart structure.
• On‑chain analysts emphasize demand, liquidity, and investor behavior metrics that still appear weak.

Both perspectives highlight real signals, which is why the current phase looks more like a transition zone than a clear bull or bear environment.

The bottom line

Bitcoin’s 90‑day rally from its $60,000 low is an encouraging sign and historically unusual during bear markets. However, the broader market structure remains uncertain.

Until Bitcoin reclaims the 200‑day moving average and decisively breaks the $88,000–$90,000 resistance zone, many analysts say it is too early to declare the start of a new bull market.

For now, the rebound looks promising—but not yet definitive.