Bitcoin Max Pain Isn’t a Reliable Expiry Magnet

Bitcoin’s max-pain level is not a dependable settlement target, based on a backtest of 919 Deribit options expiries. In that study, prices settled closer to where they were trading six hours before expiry than to the max-pain strike across all six coins tested, including Bitcoin. 3

That result is about which reference point was closer to settlement. It does not show that prices never move toward max pain, or establish what causes price movements around expiry.

What max pain measures

Max pain is the settlement price at which the combined intrinsic value of open calls and puts for a particular expiry is lowest. It describes the options positions on the books; it is not, by itself, a forecast of the market price. 24

The idea is often treated as a kind of expiry “magnet.” But a calculated level and a price prediction are different things: the calculation says what the options’ aggregate intrinsic payout would look like at different settlement prices, not where Bitcoin is likely to trade. 24

What the 919-expiry backtest found

The study examined 919 Deribit expiries across six coins, from February 14 to September 18, 2026. For each expiry, it compared the settlement price with the max-pain strike and with the coin’s trading price six hours before settlement. The settlement was closer to the pre-expiry trading price for every coin tested. 3

The study also reports a difference by timing: it found some pull toward max pain a day before expiry, but said that effect was absent in the final hours. 3 This is the study’s reported result, not evidence that max pain causes price movements.

How to use the finding

For a short-horizon expiry view, the backtest gives more support to the observed market price six hours beforehand than to max pain as a guide to the eventual settlement level. 3 That does not make the current price a guaranteed predictor either; it was simply the closer reference point in this comparison.

The practical takeaway is to treat max pain as a snapshot of options positioning, not a standalone Bitcoin price target. The backtest tests relative distance to settlement—not whether trading a strategy based on max pain would be profitable, or whether other market factors influence expiry prices.