Why the Japanese Yen Is Still Weak Against the U.S. Dollar

Despite these warnings, the broader trend remains one of yen weakness rather than sustained recovery.

How Japan Has Already Intervened

Tokyo has moved beyond verbal warnings and carried out significant foreign‑exchange intervention to support the yen.

Estimates from market analysts suggest that Japan spent roughly ¥8.65 trillion to ¥10.08 trillion in recent intervention operations during the early‑May trading period.

These interventions typically involve:

• Selling U.S. dollars from Japan’s foreign‑exchange reserves
• Buying yen in the market to push the currency higher

The operations briefly drove USD/JPY lower—at one point knocking the pair from above 160 to near the mid‑150s. But the move proved temporary as investors quickly returned to buying dollars.

Why Intervention Has Had Limited Impact

Currency intervention can slow exchange‑rate movements, but it rarely reverses a trend driven by underlying macroeconomic forces.

In the yen’s case, the main issue is the interest‑rate gap between Japan and the United States.

• U.S. interest rates remain significantly higher than those in Japan.
• The gap has been estimated at roughly 450 basis points, encouraging investors to borrow cheaply in yen and invest in higher‑yielding dollar assets.

This strategy—known as the carry trade—creates persistent demand for dollars and selling pressure on the yen.

Analysts also point to additional structural pressures on the currency:

• Rising U.S. bond yields that attract global capital
• Higher energy prices that worsen Japan’s trade balance
• A still‑cautious monetary tightening path from the Bank of Japan

Because of these factors, analysts at ING argue that the impact of Japan’s interventions fades quickly, with USD/JPY often drifting back toward the 160 area after initial declines.

What Major Banks Expect for USD/JPY

Financial institutions are sharply divided on where the currency pair goes next, reflecting uncertainty about both Federal Reserve policy and the pace of Bank of Japan tightening.

Across major forecasts, year‑end 2026 estimates range from about 150 to 164, showing a wide disagreement over the yen’s future direction.

Key views include:

• J.P. Morgan: One of the most bearish forecasts for the yen, projecting USD/JPY around 164 by the end of 2026 due to persistent structural weakness and interest‑rate differentials.
• Bank of America: Expects the pair to remain above 150 throughout 2026, implying continued yen weakness even if volatility increases.
• ING: Believes intervention may cap extreme spikes but sees the pair drifting back toward 160 unless underlying fundamentals change.

The wide spread between forecasts reflects the central uncertainty: whether the gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates will narrow enough to weaken the dollar.

The Bottom Line

Japan has already deployed massive currency intervention and coordinated closely with U.S. authorities to stabilize the yen. But those efforts have only produced temporary relief.

As long as U.S. yields remain far higher than Japanese rates, global investors still have strong incentives to hold dollars rather than yen. Until that interest‑rate gap narrows—or Japan tightens monetary policy more aggressively—the structural forces weighing on the yen are likely to persist.