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Why Recovering Hormuz Crude Flows Haven’t Eased Fuel Shortages
Gulf crude exports rose to 13.9 million barrels a day in September, but that has not restored supplies of ship fuel or diesel: refiners are prioritizing other fuels, and the IEA expects diesel markets to stay tight we... Record tanker costs are also raising the delivered price of crude and squeezing Asian refinery m...
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Key takeaways
- Gulf crude exports rose to 13.9 million barrels a day in September, but that has not restored supplies of ship fuel or diesel: refiners are prioritizing other fuels, and the IEA expects diesel markets to stay tight we...
- Record tanker costs are also raising the delivered price of crude and squeezing Asian refinery margins, adding pressure that can reach fuel buyers.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: How is the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz affecting global ship-fuel availability, oil flows, freight costs and consumers, including why. Article summary: The central problem is that recovering crude exports are not translating into an equivalent recovery in usable fuels: ship-fuel supply remains constrained, diesel shortages could extend into 2027, and record tanker freig. Topic tags: general, news, general web, government, user generated. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermar
A rebound in crude exports through the Gulf has not translated into an equivalent recovery in fuels for ships and consumers. The reason is that crude supply, refinery output and marine-fuel availability are different links in the supply chain—and each remains under pressure. 1
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Why more crude has not eased the HSFO shortage
Lloyd’s List reported on October 21 that refiners were prioritizing diesel and gasoline amid global fuel shortages, leaving less high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) available for shipping. It also reported that North Asian refiners planned to import more HSFO in November as winter approached, while refinery maintenance deferred to 2027 could further tighten supply. 3
That helps explain the apparent contradiction: more crude entering the market does not guarantee more of every refined product. If refineries prioritize other fuels, ship operators can still face tight bunker availability even as crude exports recover. 3
Crude exports rebounded; diesel remains a separate problem
The International Energy Agency’s October assessment put September Gulf crude exports at 13.9 million barrels a day, up 4.4 million from the prior level and more than 75% of the pre-war level. 13 That is a substantial rebound, but not a complete return to the earlier benchmark.
Refined fuels have recovered more slowly. The IEA says diesel markets remain under significant strain after disruptions reduced supply and inventories were drawn down. Its assessment points to continued tightness well into 2027, despite the rebound in crude shipments. 1
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The EIA has also warned that attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline temporarily halted flows along a route used to bypass Hormuz, highlighting the risk of renewed volatility in physical oil flows and prices. 17
Tanker costs are squeezing refinery margins
Shipping crude has become much more expensive. Reporting on the IEA’s October assessment put Gulf-to-Asia tanker costs at about $36 per barrel in early October; the IEA later said the cost had climbed above $37 per barrel by mid-October. 20
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Those freight charges raise the delivered cost of refinery feedstock. In September, record tanker rates pushed margins for Asian refiners processing medium-sour crude into negative territory, according to reporting on the IEA assessment. 20
24 Even when crude itself is available, the cost of getting it to a refinery can make processing less profitable.
What this could mean for consumers
Higher shipping costs can add to the price of delivered oil and put pressure on fuel and transport costs. The IEA has described rising freight expenses as a factor lifting oil prices for consumers. 25 The supplied evidence does not establish a specific increase in gasoline prices or quantify the effect for individual countries, so the size of any local impact remains uncertain.
The clearest conclusion is narrower: recovering crude flows have not removed the bottlenecks in refined-fuel supply, marine bunkers or shipping economics. Refinery priorities and postponed maintenance constrain HSFO, diesel remains tight, and costly transport makes crude more expensive to deliver. 1
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Gulf crude exports rose to 13.9 million barrels a day in September, but that has not restored supplies of ship fuel or diesel: refiners are prioritizing other fuels, and the IEA expects diesel markets to stay tight we...
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Gulf crude exports rose to 13.9 million barrels a day in September, but that has not restored supplies of ship fuel or diesel: refiners are prioritizing other fuels, and the IEA expects diesel markets to stay tight we... Record tanker costs are also raising the delivered price of crude and squeezing Asian refinery margins, adding pressure that can reach fuel buyers.