How Iran Is Still Exporting Oil Despite the Strait of Hormuz Blockade

By late April, however, the number of departing carriers had dropped sharply. Shipping analytics firm Vortexa reported that only a handful of tankers carrying Iranian crude left the Gulf of Oman between April 13 and April 25 — more than an 80% decline from comparable periods in March.

Export Estimates: IEA vs. TankerTrackers

Because tanker activity is partially obscured, export estimates vary depending on the tracking methodology used. Still, most estimates agree on the overall direction: exports fell steeply after the blockade intensified.

Before the blockade tightened:

• Iranian exports were estimated at roughly 1.1–1.5 million barrels per day, broadly consistent with the country’s recent export levels.

After mid‑April restrictions:

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated Iranian crude exports averaged about 240,000 barrels per day between April 13 and April 27.
• Tanker‑tracking estimates suggested around 4 million barrels total left Iranian waters during that period — equivalent to roughly 285,000 barrels per day.

Although the estimates differ slightly, both indicate exports fell by roughly 80% or more compared with earlier in the conflict.

Record Global Oil Inventory Drawdowns

While exports from Iran continue at reduced levels, the broader disruption to Gulf production has had a much larger impact on global supply.

The International Energy Agency reported that:

• Global oil inventories fell at about 4 million barrels per day in March and April, the fastest drawdown pace on record.
• Global stocks dropped 117 million barrels in April after a 129‑million‑barrel decline in March, highlighting the speed of the supply shock.

These rapid inventory declines reflect the gap between disrupted supply and ongoing demand, forcing markets to rely heavily on existing stockpiles.

How Much Global Supply Has Been Lost

According to the IEA, the broader Middle East disruption has removed a massive volume of oil from the market.

Key estimates include:

• More than 14 million barrels per day of Gulf oil production currently shut in.
• Cumulative supply losses exceeding 1 billion barrels since late February.
• A forecast that global oil supply could fall about 3.9 million barrels per day this year, turning an expected surplus into a deficit.

Taken together, these figures point to one of the largest supply disruptions in the modern oil market.

Market Risks if the Disruption Continues

Energy analysts warn that prolonged restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz could amplify global economic effects.

Oil prices: Investment banks warn that continued disruption could drive significantly higher prices. Some projections suggest Brent crude could surge toward $130–$150 per barrel in a worst‑case scenario if the strait remains constrained.

Inventories: With global stocks already falling at record speed, prolonged disruption could push inventories toward critically low levels, particularly for refined fuels.

Financial markets: Rising oil prices have already contributed to broader market volatility and strengthened demand for safe‑haven assets such as the US dollar during periods of heightened geopolitical tension.

The Bottom Line

Despite the naval blockade and severe shipping restrictions, Iran has managed to keep some crude moving through limited tanker traffic and opaque shipping practices. However, the volumes reaching the global market appear to have collapsed from more than a million barrels per day to only a few hundred thousand.

The larger impact may not be Iran’s exports themselves but the wider disruption across the Gulf. With millions of barrels per day of production shut in and inventories draining at a record pace, the oil market is operating with a shrinking buffer — leaving prices and global energy security highly sensitive to how long the Hormuz disruption lasts.