Middle East Crude Exports Near Pre-War Levels—But the Recovery Is Uneven

Middle Eastern crude exports have climbed close to pre-war levels, but that does not mean the region’s energy trade is fully back to normal. JPMorgan estimates crude shipments at 17.5 million barrels a day—98% of pre-war levels—while Goldman Sachs puts Persian Gulf oil exports at 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, in line with the 2025 average.239

The two figures point to a strong rebound, not a like-for-like comparison. Saudi Arabia has been a major driver, using both Strait of Hormuz traffic and its partially restored East-West Pipeline. Refined fuel exports are recovering more slowly, and the continued risks to shipping make the rebound vulnerable.8912

Why JPMorgan and Goldman’s estimates differ

JPMorgan’s 17.5-million-barrel-a-day estimate measures Middle Eastern crude exports against a pre-war benchmark. Goldman’s 23.3-million-barrel figure covers oil exports from the Persian Gulf, compares them with the 2025 average, and includes “dark” shipments—voyages by tankers whose location transponders are switched off.2369

Those differences in geography, product scope, comparison period and treatment of hard-to-track voyages mean the estimates should not be read as competing measurements of precisely the same thing. Dark crossings are particularly difficult to count, adding uncertainty to estimates of how much oil is moving through the region.16 Goldman’s account also says Iran shipped no crude by sea in September, a reminder that a regional recovery does not mean every exporter has recovered.5

Saudi Arabia is boosting flows through two routes

More oil has moved through the Strait of Hormuz, with JPMorgan putting flows through the waterway near 13 million barrels a day and identifying Saudi Arabia as the main driver.815 Goldman also attributed the September export rebound to increased Hormuz shipments, including ship-to-ship transfers.46

Saudi Arabia has also restored flows on its East-West Pipeline, which carries crude to Red Sea ports and provides an export route that bypasses Hormuz. JPMorgan’s estimate put pipeline flows at at least 3.5 million barrels a day—about half of capacity—after damage earlier in the month.12 That partial restoration adds another route for Saudi exports, but it is not a return to full pipeline capacity.

Refined fuels are still well below pre-war levels

The crude recovery masks a weaker picture for products such as diesel and gasoline. JPMorgan estimates refined-product flows at 3 million barrels a day, or 58% of pre-war levels.29 So a near-recovery in crude shipments should not be mistaken for a comparable recovery in fuels ready for use.

More exports have not removed the shipping risk

The rebound shows that oil is moving through the region again, not that shipping has become safe. Reuters described estimates as uncertain amid dark crossings, which tankers make without transponder signals to avoid attacks.1 JPMorgan’s assessment likewise notes continued risks to shipping even as flows approach pre-war levels.3

Oil contracts were still trading near $100 a barrel on September 30: December Brent settled above $98, while the expiring November contract finished above $103.26 Rising supply has eased pressure on the market, but ongoing security risks and only partial pipeline restoration leave the export recovery exposed to renewed disruption.1226