Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Selling Has Cooled—But Recovery Is Unconfirmed

Bitcoin long-term holders are sending fewer coins to exchanges than during the March 2024 rally peak, and a reported realized-profit measure is far below its December 2024 high. Their net supply behavior has shifted more than once, however: accumulation returned in July, followed by a substantial selling wave and a move toward neutral in September. The overall picture suggests less persistent selling pressure—not confirmation that a durable price recovery is underway.1723631

Exchange inflows have cooled from the March 2024 peak

Long-term-holder (LTH) exchange inflows rose to more than five times their annual average at the March 2024 market peak. Activity was comparatively subdued around the 2025 peak, increased again as the bear market developed, and has since fallen well below the annual average, according to reporting on analyst Darkfost’s data.1730

Exchange inflows indicate coins moving to trading platforms, where they may be sold; they are not a direct measure of completed sales. Still, lower inflows suggest less potential selling supply reaching exchanges than during the earlier high-activity period.17

Realized profits are moderate, not a measure of all coins in profit

A September estimate put long-term holders’ realized-profit level at about 72%, compared with roughly 350% in December 2024.23 These figures describe a realized-profit measure for coins being spent. They are different from the share of all Bitcoin supply currently in profit, so the two readings should not be treated as interchangeable.123

The comparison points to less elevated profit-taking than at the December 2024 high, but it does not mean long-term holders have stopped selling. The exchange-inflow data also show why it is better to describe the change as cooling activity rather than a complete halt.1723

Accumulation returned, then net selling moved toward neutral

Glassnode’s long-term-holder net-position-change measure turned positive in July after an extended period of distribution. The July report described net accumulation in the range of roughly 50,000 to 100,000 BTC.6

That shift did not continue uninterrupted. A later report described a roughly 260,000 BTC net outflow during a selling wave that began in mid-August; by September, long-term-holder net positioning had moved toward neutral.31 In other words, the supply picture has improved from extended distribution, but it has not followed a straight line into accumulation.

Long-term-holder supply measures a cohort of coins held for at least 155 days in Glassnode’s framework.6 It is not the same as exchange inflows: one tracks changes in the holder cohort’s net position, while the other tracks coins sent to exchanges. Read together, the indicators suggest selling has eased from its more active phases, but the recent neutral reading is more cautious than a clear, sustained accumulation signal.61731

The June 2026 low resembled 2022 in one measure—but not all

At the June 2026 low, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit fell to roughly the level seen at the November 2022 bottom.1 That resemblance is notable, but other measures differed. Bitcoin did not record a daily close below its aggregate realized price during this bear market, unlike earlier bear markets when it spent extended periods below that level.4 Net Unrealized Profit/Loss also remained positive throughout the current cycle, according to the cited Glassnode data.1

Those differences matter: a similar reading in one metric does not establish that this cycle has reached the same kind of bottom, or that the recovery will follow the same path. The comparisons describe on-chain conditions, not a forecast.14

What the shift means for supply pressure

Lower LTH exchange inflows can mean less potential long-term-holder supply arriving on exchanges for buyers to absorb. The return of net accumulation in July was another sign of a behavioral shift, but the subsequent outflow and September move toward neutral show that the signal is not settled.61731

For a sustained recovery, reduced selling would need to be accompanied by persistent demand. On-chain data presented here point to cooling distribution and changing holder behavior; by themselves, they do not establish that demand is strong enough to support a lasting price advance.