Why the October 2025 Gaza Ceasefire Is Unraveling

The U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that took effect in October 2025 was intended to halt fighting after two years of war. Months later, however, developments on the ground suggest the truce has largely broken down in practice. Continued airstrikes, rising casualty figures, targeted killings of Hamas leaders, expanding Israeli territorial control, and stalled negotiations all point to a ceasefire that exists formally but no longer functions as a true halt to hostilities.

Continued Israeli strikes despite the truce

Violence has persisted throughout Gaza even though the ceasefire agreement technically remains in effect. In mid‑May 2026, Israeli airstrikes killed at least eight Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health officials, highlighting how combat activity continues months after the truce began.

Similar incidents have occurred repeatedly since the agreement took effect. Reports have described Israeli strikes killing Palestinians in various locations across the enclave, underscoring how fragile—and increasingly ineffective—the ceasefire has become.

Rising death toll after the ceasefire

Casualty data also illustrates the ceasefire’s limited impact. Gaza health authorities report that hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks since the truce began in October 2025. Estimates vary, but several reports indicate more than 800 deaths during the supposed ceasefire period.

The broader death toll from the war has continued to rise as well. By early May 2026, Gaza’s health ministry reported more than 72,600 total Palestinian deaths since the conflict began in October 2023, indicating that fatalities have continued accumulating despite the truce.

Because many casualty figures come from Gaza’s health authorities or local sources, independent verification is difficult, but the consistent upward trend across reports suggests ongoing lethal violence.

Targeted killings of Hamas leaders

Another sign the ceasefire is eroding is Israel’s continued campaign against senior Hamas figures.

In May 2026, Israel confirmed that an airstrike in Gaza killed Ezzedine al‑Haddad, a senior commander and chief of Hamas’s armed wing in the territory. Hamas also confirmed his death.

Israeli officials have described such strikes as part of their strategy to dismantle Hamas’s leadership and military capabilities. However, the continued targeting of senior commanders during a ceasefire illustrates how military operations have persisted alongside the diplomatic framework.

Israel’s expanding territorial control in Gaza

Territorial developments further demonstrate the weakening of the truce. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in May 2026 that Israeli forces controlled around 60% of the Gaza Strip, a larger share than previously reported earlier in the conflict.

Other reporting indicates Israeli forces have expanded beyond some of the lines originally associated with the ceasefire framework, consolidating buffer zones and restricted areas across large parts of the enclave.

This shift means the military map of Gaza has continued to change even while the ceasefire remains nominally in place.

Negotiations remain deadlocked

Diplomatic efforts to turn the ceasefire into a long‑term settlement have also stalled.

International envoy Nickolay Mladenov said months after the agreement that the ceasefire had "failed to meet expectations" for both Israelis and Palestinians. Talks have become stuck over key issues, particularly the demand that Hamas disarm as part of a post‑war political framework.

Proposals have included ideas such as weapons buybacks or limited policing roles for a demilitarized Hamas, but no consensus has emerged. Without agreement on disarmament and governance, negotiations have struggled to move beyond the initial truce.

A ceasefire in name more than reality

Taken together, these developments suggest the October 2025 ceasefire has transitioned from a genuine halt in fighting into a fragile and deteriorating arrangement:

• Airstrikes and deadly incidents continue inside Gaza.
• Hundreds of people have reportedly been killed during the supposed ceasefire period.
• Israel continues targeted operations against Hamas leadership.
• Israeli forces have expanded their control to roughly 60% of the territory.
• Diplomatic talks remain stalled over core political and security questions.

The result is a situation where the ceasefire still exists on paper but has not stopped combat activity, casualties, or territorial changes on the ground. Until negotiations produce a durable political settlement—or the parties recommit to enforcing the truce—the conflict is likely to remain in this unstable gray zone between war and peace.