Russia–Ukraine Black Sea Attacks Are Disrupting Shipping, Grain and Oil

The Black Sea campaign has expanded from attacks on military targets into a sustained contest over the infrastructure that moves food, fuel and export revenue. Russia is striking Ukraine’s ports and ships; Ukraine is targeting Russian refineries, export facilities and vessels. The practical result is a more dangerous commercial corridor, disrupted grain trade and recurring pressure on Russia’s fuel system.

What happened at Pivdennyi, Odesa and Chornomorsk?

On August 25, Russia’s Defence Ministry said it had struck three cargo vessels and a tanker at Pivdennyi—also known as Yuzhny—plus another cargo vessel at nearby Odesa. It also said port infrastructure in Pivdennyi and Odesa and fuel-storage facilities at Chornomorsk were hit. Moscow alleged the vessels were carrying supplies for Ukraine’s military, but Reuters said it could not independently verify those claims. 2

This followed earlier July claims by Russia that it hit port infrastructure and a dry-cargo vessel unloading at Chornomorsk, as well as facilities and ships in Odesa. 4 Ukrainian officials separately reported deadly Russian strikes in Odesa and damage to civilian, industrial and port infrastructure. 5

The significance is not only physical damage. When shipowners judge calls at a port too risky, cargoes can be delayed or rerouted even without a formal blockade. In July, Ukraine said shipowners had halted arrivals at its Black Sea ports because of intensified strikes. 6

The human toll on commercial shipping

The escalation has put civilian crews and port workers directly at risk. Ukraine’s port administration recorded 57 Russian attacks on civilian vessels in July, including 22 at sea, and 67 attacks on port infrastructure; these are Ukrainian official figures, not independently audited totals. 7

Reuters reported that attacks had damaged foreign-flagged civilian vessels and that two Ukrainians aboard one vessel were killed in a July strike, while another person was killed in Odesa. 3 The scale and attribution of every incident remain difficult to independently establish in an active war zone, but the operational consequence is clear: commercial shipping is facing a materially higher risk environment.

Ukraine’s refinery and maritime counter-campaign

Ukraine has paired its maritime operations with long-range drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. Reuters reported that the Perm refinery, Russia’s seventh-largest by processing volume, halted after an August 21 drone attack damaged technological units. 32 It also reported suspensions at Lukoil’s NORSI refinery, Russia’s fourth-largest, and at the Novoshakhtinsk refinery after strikes in late August. 34

The Moscow refinery, the largest fuel supplier to the Moscow region, was reported to face an outage of at least six months after extensive drone damage. 35 These strikes can reduce immediate fuel output, require costly repairs and air-defence deployments, and force crude into export channels rather than domestic refining. Russia’s western-port crude exports rose 15% in May from April as refinery outages reduced processing, according to industry sources cited by Reuters. 38

Still, claims that Ukraine has permanently disabled a fixed “major share” of Russian refining capacity need caution. The effects vary by plant and over time. In 2025, Russia was able to use spare capacity to limit the annual decline in oil processing to about 3% despite attacks on at least 17 major refineries, Reuters reported. 37

Why diesel and global fuel prices are harder to measure

Refinery outages can tighten supplies of gasoline and diesel because less crude is converted into fuel products. Reuters reported fuel shortages in some Russian regions amid refinery attacks and seasonal demand. 32 But the available evidence does not establish a single current national reduction in Russia’s diesel exports, nor does it support attributing a particular global diesel-price movement solely to Ukrainian strikes.

The broader energy effect is risk-driven. Disruption to refineries, export terminals and sea routes can alter crude and product flows, increase insurance and freight costs, and make supply less predictable. Reuters calculated that countries affected by conflicts produced about 45 million barrels per day of oil in 2025 output terms, more than 43% of global supply—an indication of how conflict risk can compound across energy markets. 33

Grain exports are the most immediate global exposure

Ukraine’s dependence on the Black Sea explains why port attacks have outsized economic consequences. About 90% of its wheat, corn and sunflower-seed exports normally move through the Black Sea, while farming accounts for nearly 60% of Ukrainian export revenue. 52

The interruption has been rapid: Ukrainian grain exports fell 75% in the first two weeks of August as Russian strikes and shipping disruption constrained loadings. 52 Earlier industry estimates said sustained attacks could cut monthly grain shipments by as much as one-third. 54

Russia has also had to adapt. Its grain exporters were reported to be rerouting shipments toward Baltic ports after Ukrainian drone attacks in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov increased risks on southern routes. 51 With both countries central to grain trade, disruption on both sides has helped push wheat futures to a three-year high, according to Bloomberg. 53

The larger economic contest

The campaign is best understood as reciprocal pressure on each side’s ability to earn foreign exchange and sustain wartime logistics. Ukraine needs functioning ports to move agricultural exports and support its economy. Russia depends on reliable energy production, oil exports and maritime routes.

Neither side has achieved a clean shutdown of the other’s trade system. Instead, the evidence points to repeated disruption: vessels pause calls, cargoes seek alternative routes, refineries halt and restart, and the costs of insurance, defence, repairs and delays accumulate. That makes the Black Sea’s security a direct concern not just for the belligerents, but for seafarers, grain buyers and energy markets well beyond the region. 63851