Saudi Aramco Restarts East-West Pipeline, but Yanbu Exports Lag

Saudi Aramco’s response has been to restore its damaged East-West pipeline gradually while moving more crude through Gulf export terminals and arranging transfers off Oman. The distinction is between oil moving through the pipeline and tankers loading at Yanbu: as of September 24, Reuters reported rising pipeline volumes but no resumed crude tanker loadings at the Red Sea port. 43147

What has restarted—and what has not

Drone attacks forced the East-West pipeline to shut down on September 13, halting crude loadings at Yanbu. Reuters later reported that three pumping stations had been damaged, one more than initially assessed. Some imagery captions date a reported strike to September 11, so the reported attack date should not be treated as necessarily identical to the shutdown date. 354

The pipeline restarted at a low pumping rate on September 22. Sources initially said Yanbu exports could resume that day, but Reuters reported on September 24 that Aramco was still building up volumes at the port before tanker loadings resumed. A security source estimated six to eight weeks for a full pipeline restart; separate reports described work to bypass damaged infrastructure and a goal of restoring full capacity in about six weeks. Neither estimate established that repairs were complete. 44711

The stakes were substantial. Saudi Arabia had been using the route to redirect around 4 million barrels a day toward the Red Sea amid disruption at the Strait of Hormuz. Capital Economics estimated that the closure could put as much as 4% of global oil supply at risk—an exposure estimate, not a verified measure of barrels permanently lost. 1051

How Aramco kept crude moving

More Gulf loadings. Tanker-tracking data cited by Reuters showed Aramco loading about 14 million barrels onto seven supertankers inside the Gulf on September 20. The cited data identifies the region, not Ras Tanura as the loading point for all seven vessels. 3

Transfers off Sohar. Trade sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia had sold about 60 million barrels of crude originating at Ras Tanura for ship-to-ship transfer at Sohar, Oman, during September and October. These were sales and loading arrangements, not confirmation that every barrel had already been delivered. The route also still requires crude to leave the Gulf; a transfer off Oman does not, by itself, remove exposure to Strait of Hormuz traffic. 1

Sales to Asian buyers. Traders reported that Saudi Arabia had sold nearly 100 million barrels to Asian buyers since mid-September for October–November delivery. Reports identified refiners in China, India, Japan and South Korea among the buyers, but the supplied reporting does not establish how much each country purchased or how much had arrived. The nearly 100 million barrels sold, 60 million barrels arranged through Sohar and 14 million barrels loaded on one day may overlap and must not be added together. 223331

Some reports also describe Aramco taking a greater role in arranging delivery to Asian customers. Reuters had previously noted that refiners traditionally bought Saudi crude on a free-on-board basis and arranged their own shipments. The available reporting does not establish how widely any change to delivered terms applied after the pipeline shutdown, or precisely how freight and transit risks were allocated. 3239

Repair assurances and market risks

Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said the East-West system has multiple lines and that disrupted operations can be restored “within days.” He also said the company was studying fourth and fifth crude-export routes. Those comments describe resilience measures and possible future options—not proof that the entire damaged system was repaired within days. The cited reports provide no firm destinations, capacities, completion dates or costs for the proposed routes. 1821447

Oil prices fell on September 22 as Saudi crude flows increased and the pipeline restarted, Reuters reported. That market response did not settle the operational question: as of its September 24 report, Reuters said Yanbu loadings were still pending. Continued Gulf exports can help supply buyers, but full pipeline capacity, sustained Yanbu loadings and the reliability of alternative routes remained unconfirmed in the cited reporting. 2471