Inside To Lam’s Back‑to‑Back ASEAN Tour: Thailand, Singapore, and a Historic Shangri‑La Keynote

When Vietnamese Party General Secretary and President To Lam touches down in Thailand on May 27, it will mark the start of a five‑day diplomatic campaign that is as much about locking in economic architecture as it is about security signaling. By the time he leaves Singapore on May 31, he will have held talks with two of ASEAN’s three largest economies, signed action plans that have been in negotiation since 2022, and become the first Vietnamese leader ever to deliver the keynote address at the IISS Shangri‑La Dialogue .

Taken together, the two legs form a sequenced effort to turn recently upgraded partnerships into hard deliverables—supply‑chain integration, digital and green cooperation agreements, and a clearer voice in the region’s security conversation.

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Thailand (May 27–29): Turning a strategic upgrade into an action plan

Vietnam and Thailand elevated ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) in May 2025, during Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s visit to Hanoi . To Lam’s trip is the next step: translating that framework into a signed action programme that will guide cooperation for the next five decades .

The “Three Connections” strategy moves from concept to contract

The centerpiece of the Thailand leg is the “Three Connections” initiative, a cooperation framework agreed in principle by the two governments in November 2022 . The three pillars cover:

• Supply‑chain connectivity, with specific focus on oil refining, agriculture, machinery, and electronic components .
• Business and local‑level cooperation, linking enterprises and provinces across both countries.
• Sustainable‑growth strategies, including green energy and climate‑related collaboration.

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow confirmed that Thailand and Vietnam are “working on an action plan” expected to be signed during the visit, describing it as a “key mechanism to promote a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” . Vietnamese Ambassador to Thailand Phan Chi Thanh made the same point: a “detailed action programme involving ministries, agencies and localities from both sides” is the primary deliverable .

Trade and investment deepening

Thailand is Vietnam’s second‑largest ASEAN investor, with 797 active projects worth US$15.4 billion in registered capital . Bilateral trade has been accelerating sharply: in the first four months of 2026, two‑way turnover reached nearly $8.6 billion, up 24% compared to the same period in 2025 . The two sides have previously set a target of $25 billion in bilateral trade, and the visit is expected to reinforce that goal .

For Vietnam, Thailand represents more than a market—it is a critical overland corridor and a logistics partner that can help Vietnamese manufacturers plug into regional supply chains. Closer integration, as the ambassador noted, “will help Vietnam further expand its global trade networks by leveraging Thailand’s strong regional and international supply chains” .

Strategic and people‑to‑people coordination

Beyond economics, the two leaders are expected to discuss ASEAN centrality, the South China Sea, and Mekong sub‑regional cooperation . The timing also carries symbolic weight: the visit falls during the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations, and a Thai naval vessel was already sent to Vietnam in May as part of the celebrations . The leaders are expected to build on that with additional cultural and people‑to‑people exchanges.

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Singapore (May 29–31): A state visit and a security debut

To Lam arrives in Singapore on May 29 for a state visit at the invitation of President Tharman Shanmugaratnam. But the day’s centerpiece will be his address that evening, when he becomes the first Vietnamese leader to deliver the opening keynote at the IISS Shangri‑La Dialogue, Asia’s most influential defense and security forum .

Finalizing the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership

Vietnam and Singapore upgraded relations to a CSP in March 2025, during To Lam’s previous visit as Party General Secretary. That announcement was accompanied by several MOUs on digital transformation, combating transnational crime, and offshore wind power trade cooperation . Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong noted at the time that the CSP was significant because it was “Singapore’s first with an ASEAN Member State” .

The upcoming state visit is intended to move those agreements from memoranda to binding implementation. Singapore’s ambassador to Vietnam, Rajpal Singh, said the two countries aim to “cooperate on solving common issues, for mutual benefit, and strengthen cooperation in new fields such as digital, advanced manufacturing, and high‑quality education and training” .

Digital, green, and innovation cooperation

Singapore has signaled a clear interest in partnerships that go beyond traditional investment. The March 2025 upgrade included MOUs on cross‑border QR code payments, digital development, and innovation . The state visit is expected to produce further announcements in the digital economy, green energy, and carbon‑credit collaboration .

This marks a deliberate shift for the Vietnam‑Singapore relationship. For decades, the economic pillar was dominated by the Vietnam‑Singapore Industrial Parks (VSIPs). Now both sides are explicitly pushing into areas—semiconductors, fintech, offshore wind, and advanced manufacturing—that align with Vietnam’s ambition to move up the value chain.

The Shangri‑La opportunity and the China question

To Lam’s keynote on May 29 comes with high stakes. The 2026 Shangri‑La Dialogue runs from May 29–31, and its fifth plenary is dedicated to “China’s Cooperative Partnerships in the Asia‑Pacific” . In 2025, China canceled a plenary on its own security altogether. The choice of a Vietnamese leader to open the forum thus sends multiple signals.

Asia Times assessed the selection as a marker of “Vietnam’s elevated standing in regional security conversations,” noting that it offers Hanoi an opportunity to “reassure partners that its strategic autonomy remains intact, even as its institutional ties with Beijing deepen” . The address will be closely watched for how To Lam frames the region’s security architecture—whether he emphasizes ASEAN‑led mechanisms, great‑power balancing, or a more assertive Vietnamese vision for regional order.

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What the combined tour means for Vietnam’s regional diplomacy

Viewed as a single diplomatic campaign, To Lam’s back‑to‑back visits reveal a Hanoi strategy that is simultaneously economic and strategic.

• ASEAN centrality in practice. By engaging Thailand and Singapore—two of the bloc’s three largest economies—in rapid succession, Vietnam reinforces its role as a consensus‑builder even as great‑power competition intensifies .
• Diversification, not dependence. The Thailand leg deepens overland trade and manufacturing links, while the Singapore leg opens digital, green, and security channels. No single partner is being allowed to dominate Vietnam’s economic integration .
• Great‑power hedging with a Vietnamese voice. The Shangri‑La keynote gives Hanoi a platform to articulate its own security vision at a moment when the U.S.‑China rivalry is reshaping the region. Doing so from the podium of a neutral, high‑profile forum lets Vietnam advance its interests without overt confrontation .
• Tangible deliverables over symbolic visits. Both stops are designed to produce signed agreements—an action plan for the “Three Connections” with Thailand, and binding MOUs on digital, crime, and energy cooperation with Singapore—not just joint statements.

The risk, as some analysts note, is that the Shangri‑La appearance may be overshadowed by larger powers’ agendas. But for Vietnam, simply standing at the podium as the first ASEAN head of state to open the dialogue may be the deliverable that matters most.