Why Samsung Could Gain Ground as Memory Shortages Squeeze Smartphones

Samsung faces an unusual split: the DRAM and NAND shortages making smartphones more expensive to build are also benefiting its semiconductor business. In its September 2026 outlook, Mizuho Securities expected Samsung to withstand the handset downturn better than most rivals, though holding shipment volume steady would not necessarily protect its phone margins.3011

A flat Samsung forecast in a falling market

Mizuho forecast 1.15 billion global smartphone shipments in 2026, down 9% year over year, against roughly 240 million Samsung shipments, broadly flat. If both figures materialize, Samsung would gain shipment share despite selling no more phones than before.30

That is a relative-resilience forecast, not a prediction that the Galaxy business will escape higher costs. More secure component access and a stronger premium-device mix could give Samsung and Apple more room to manage memory-price increases than makers heavily exposed to entry-level and midrange phones. But the provided reporting does not establish precise Mizuho shipment forecasts for individual Chinese vendors or quantify either company’s ability to absorb or pass on those costs.3035

Counterpoint’s outlook offers a useful distinction, not a number to substitute for Mizuho’s: it forecast a steeper 14.3% global shipment decline in 2026 and declines of 15%–34% for leading Chinese phone makers.42

What the second quarter showed

Counterpoint’s preliminary figures put global smartphone shipments 11% below the prior year in Q2 2026. Reporting on its figures placed Samsung at 24% market share, up from 20% a year earlier, while Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo faced double-digit shipment declines.213541 Those reports do not provide a complete, consistently sourced set of shipment totals and market shares for all four vendors, so a precise vendor-by-vendor comparison would overstate the available evidence.

The chip benefit—and the phone-business caveat

Samsung reported KRW 89.2 trillion in Q2 operating profit for Device Solutions, its semiconductor division, compared with KRW 89.5 trillion for the company overall.3136 Reporting linked the semiconductor strength to higher chip prices and AI-server demand—the other side of the component-cost pressure facing handset makers.8

That companywide profit does not mean phones were equally profitable. One secondary account reports a KRW 700 billion operating loss for Mobile eXperience and Networks, although that figure is not established by the provided excerpt of Samsung’s earnings release.1131 Samsung was promoting its premium Galaxy Z8 foldables in September, but the available sources do not verify a specific second-half strategy centered on both Z8 and S26 devices.3

How much foldable upside is established?

Apple’s entry into foldable phones could create a display-supply opportunity alongside new competition for Samsung’s own devices.3 The available sources, however, do not substantiate the attributed Mizuho figures for Apple foldable production, Samsung Display panel volumes or hinge-related delays. Those numbers should not be treated as confirmed parts of the investment case.

The clearest supported thesis is narrower: Samsung could gain smartphone share in a contracting market while its chip division benefits from elevated memory prices. Whether that translates into stronger handset profits remains a separate question.3031