Could Clean Energy Replace All Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows by 2035?

Even short disruptions can trigger immediate market volatility. Early in the crisis, Brent crude prices jumped by roughly 10–13% as traders reacted to the sudden supply shock.

The ETC Argument: Clean Energy Could Offset Hormuz‑Scale Oil Demand

The Energy Transitions Commission frames the crisis as evidence of a structural vulnerability in the global energy system: heavy reliance on fossil fuels that must travel through geographically concentrated supply routes.

According to the ETC, accelerating deployment of clean technologies could reduce oil demand by an amount equivalent to the entire flow through the Strait of Hormuz by around 2035.

The argument rests on three broad transitions already underway:

• Electrification of transport and industry, which replaces oil use with electricity.
• Efficiency improvements that reduce overall energy demand.
• Expansion of renewable power and other domestic low‑carbon energy sources.

Together, these changes could significantly shrink the portion of global energy supply that depends on long‑distance fossil‑fuel trade routes.

However, the exact assumptions behind the ETC’s estimate—such as the pace of electric vehicle adoption or renewable deployment—are not detailed in the sources available here, so the specific modeling cannot be independently verified from this evidence.

Why Renewables Are Considered More Secure Than Fossil Fuels

One of the central arguments emerging from the Hormuz crisis is that renewable energy systems behave differently from fossil‑fuel supply chains.

Fossil fuels must be extracted, transported across oceans or pipelines, and traded through global commodity markets. That creates strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz where geopolitical conflicts can disrupt supply.

Renewable energy systems operate differently. Once infrastructure like wind farms, solar plants, and power grids is built, the energy source itself is local and does not rely on international fuel shipments.

Policy analysts increasingly describe clean energy systems as structurally less vulnerable to geopolitical shocks because they are not dependent on globally traded fuels moving through narrow transit routes.

The European Commission similarly argues that renewable energy strengthens energy security by reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels and increasing domestic energy production.

Economic Lessons From the Hormuz Crisis

The crisis demonstrated how quickly fossil‑fuel disruptions can cascade through the global economy.

Beyond immediate price spikes, energy shortages can affect multiple sectors simultaneously. Higher fuel costs raise fertilizer and transportation prices, which can then feed into food inflation and broader economic instability.

Developing countries that depend heavily on imported fuel are especially vulnerable because they often lack strategic reserves or diversified supply routes.

These cascading risks are one reason analysts argue that repeated geopolitical disruptions may accelerate the shift toward efficiency, electrification, and domestic clean energy systems.

Policy Actions Governments Are Being Urged to Take

Energy analysts warn that crisis responses sometimes lock countries into deeper fossil‑fuel dependence—such as building new long‑lived oil or gas infrastructure in response to short‑term shortages.

Instead, policy groups argue that governments should prioritize structural solutions that reduce exposure to volatile fuel markets. Recommended actions include:

• Rapid deployment of renewable and low‑carbon energy systems
• Accelerating electrification in transport, heating, and industry
• Expanding energy‑efficiency measures to reduce demand
• Stabilizing markets in the short term while reducing long‑term dependence on imported fossil fuels

These strategies aim to make energy systems less dependent on global fuel trade routes and therefore less exposed to geopolitical shocks.

A Crisis That Could Reshape Energy Security

The Strait of Hormuz crisis highlighted how concentrated the global oil system remains. When a single waterway carrying about 20% of global oil flows is disrupted, the economic consequences spread worldwide.

The Energy Transitions Commission argues that the long‑term solution is not simply protecting shipping lanes or increasing fossil‑fuel production, but reducing dependence on fuels that must travel through such chokepoints in the first place.

Whether clean energy deployment can offset demand equal to all Hormuz oil flows by 2035 remains uncertain without detailed modeling. But the crisis has strengthened the strategic case that electrification, efficiency, and domestic renewable energy could play a central role in making future energy systems less vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.