What Zelensky Says Leaked Russian Documents Reveal About Russia’s Wartime Economy

Such a deficit reflects the growing cost of sustaining military operations while maintaining domestic spending and economic support programs during the war. Officials and analysts have noted that Russia’s economy has been heavily shaped by wartime spending and sanctions pressure, which can distort growth figures and strain public finances over time.

Declines in oil refining and production capacity

Energy is central to Russia’s economy and government revenue, so the documents reportedly highlight disruptions in the oil sector.

Zelensky said Russia’s oil refining capacity has fallen by at least 10% in recent months, a drop he linked to Ukrainian long‑range strikes on refineries and energy infrastructure.

The materials also indicate that Russian companies are reducing the number of active oil wells, a development that could make it harder to quickly restore production.

One reported example cited in coverage of the documents is that a single Russian oil company shut down about 400 wells, which can be difficult and costly to restart once halted.

Banking-sector pressure and possible closures

The intelligence summary cited by Zelensky also points to stress in Russia’s financial sector.

Reporting based on the documents says 11 Russian financial institutions are preparing for closure, while several others face severe liquidity or solvency problems that could require outside support.

Bank instability can signal deeper structural problems, particularly when combined with sanctions that limit access to international capital and financial systems.

Sanctions and strikes targeting Russia’s energy revenues

The documents and accompanying statements emphasize the combined impact of Western sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure.

Ukraine says its campaign of long‑range strikes against refineries, storage facilities, and export infrastructure has significantly disrupted Russian oil operations. Zelensky previously estimated that these strikes had already cost Russia at least $7 billion in oil‑related revenue in 2026 alone, due to facility damage, downtime, and shipment delays.

Since oil and gas exports are a major source of Russian state revenue, disruptions to refining and export capacity can directly affect the government’s ability to finance the war effort.

What remains uncertain

Important limitations remain in assessing the claims:

• The alleged documents themselves have not been made public.
• Most available details come from Zelensky’s statements and media reports citing them.
• Independent verification of specific figures—such as the budget deficit, bank closures, or oil‑sector losses—is limited.

Even so, the reported contents align with a broader pattern noted by analysts: Russia’s wartime economy has remained operational but faces increasing pressure from sanctions, infrastructure attacks, labor shortages, and the sustained cost of military operations.

If the described internal assessments are accurate, they suggest that Russian officials privately recognize deeper structural strains than those typically acknowledged in public economic data.