Fresh US Strikes Imperil US-Iran Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz: What's in the Draft MOU

Strikes Shake Fragile Diplomatic Track

The timing of the strikes was a harsh blow to the diplomatic process. Al-Monitor reported that the attacks imperiled a fragile ceasefire and cast new doubt on a deal to end the Middle East war. Oil prices fluctuated in the wake of the military action, reflecting market anxiety that an agreement to reopen the strategic waterway might collapse .

The backdrop to the strikes was a deal that President Donald Trump himself said was "largely negotiated" as recently as Saturday, May 23 . The fact that hostilities resumed as negotiators touched down in Qatar dangerously eroded trust, an essential ingredient for finalizing the agreement.

Despite the military flare-up, diplomatic efforts did not halt. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged the Qatar talks continued, stating, "There were some talks going on in Qatar today, so we'll see if we can get it back on track" .

Inside the Draft MOU: What the Deal Would Do

The proposed agreement, reported by Axios and other outlets citing a draft Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) from U.S. officials, outlines a phased, 60-day framework to wind down the three-month-old war . The core components would unfold in the following sequence:

What Iran would do:

• Reopen the Strait of Hormuz: The strait would be open without tolls for commercial shipping. Iran agreed to clear the mines it had deployed to allow ships to pass freely .
• Commit to a nuclear moratorium: During the 60-day window, Iran would halt nuclear enrichment .
• Negotiate on nuclear curbs: The draft includes a commitment by Iran to negotiate curbs on its nuclear program, including giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium, though the actual details of how and when that would happen are deferred to a later stage .

What the U.S. would do in exchange:

• Ceasefire extension: The initial term of the deal is a 60-day ceasefire, with the possibility of extension .
• Lift the naval blockade: The U.S. blockade on Iranian ports would be lifted, a key Iranian demand .
• Allow oil sales and sanctions relief: Iran would be able to freely sell oil again, and the U.S. would issue sanctions waivers. The deal also involves releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds, a figure one report placed at $25 billion .
• Restore shipping traffic: Within 30 days of the deal's commencement, the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz would return to pre-war levels .

The Major Sticking Points

While the framework appears straightforward on paper, several critical points remain unresolved and are the subject of intense negotiation:

• Fate of Enriched Uranium: The U.S. insists Iran must give up its stockpile of enriched uranium entirely. The draft MOU includes a commitment from Iran to do so, but two U.S. officials told the Irish Times that the specifics are "to be nailed down later" . This ambiguity is a major source of contention.
• Sequencing: Iran's earlier proposal in April sought to decouple the issues, aiming to reopen the strait and end the war first while postponing nuclear talks to a later phase . The current draft bundles these elements, but the sequence of relief versus disarmament—what one source described as a "relief for performance" framework—remains the central sticking point . Will Iranian oil flow again before Iran has shipped its uranium out of the country?
• Verification and Timeline: The MOU reportedly lacks defined mechanisms and timelines for verifying the removal of the uranium stockpile and the complete lifting of the naval blockade .
• Sovereignty Concerns: Iran has publicly emphasized it will "exercise its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz" in any reopening arrangement, a signal of the political sensitivity of the waterway's control beyond its economic function .

Conclusion: Deal on the Brink

The near-completed MOU now hangs in a precarious balance. The trust required to bridge the remaining gaps on uranium, sequencing, and verification has been dangerously eroded by Monday's strikes. While diplomatic channels remain open and key officials insist a deal is still achievable, the military shock has made a complex, fragile negotiation even more volatile .