Why Gulf Attacks Pushed Brent to $108 and WTI Above $103

Oil markets rose sharply because traders were forced to price two connected risks at once: renewed attacks around Gulf shipping routes and the loss of Saudi Arabia’s main pipeline route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

At Monday’s open, Brent crude futures jumped $3.62, or 3.46%, to $108.23 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose $3.15, or 3.15%, to $103.20. The move reflected concern that regional attacks and constrained transit routes could develop into a more sustained physical supply disruption. 1

Fresh attacks raised the immediate risk premium

The weekend incidents added uncertainty around both Saudi infrastructure and vessel safety in the Gulf. Saudi state media reported damage to homes and a mosque in Jazan province that it attributed to a Houthi attack, while the Houthis said they had struck a Saudi military base in a neighboring province. 1

In the Strait of Hormuz, the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a projectile struck a vessel, causing a fire and prompting the crew’s evacuation. Iran said that an Iranian commercial vessel off its coast suffered one death and four injuries. 1

For oil traders, the importance was not simply the individual incidents. They occurred while Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline—the principal alternative route for exports that would otherwise rely on Hormuz—was already shut. That combination raised the risk of disruptions to both the route around the strait and traffic within it. 1

Why the Saudi pipeline outage matters

Saudi Arabia had been using the East-West pipeline to move about 4 million barrels per day to Yanbu on the Red Sea, a volume equivalent to roughly 4% of global oil supply. The route is strategically important because it allows exports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. 17

The line was shut after a drone attack, and Saudi officials had not provided a public restart date. Industry sources told Reuters that Yanbu held enough stored oil to maintain exports for only about five to seven days without renewed pipeline flows. 17

That does not mean 4% of world supply was immediately removed from the market. Rather, it was the volume at risk if the outage persisted beyond available inventories and alternative logistics could not compensate. Repair estimates cited by sources ranged from days to five or six weeks, underlining why the expected duration of the outage became central to pricing. 17

A second chokepoint concern in the Red Sea

The Bab el-Mandeb entrance to the Red Sea is another strategically important passage for energy shipping. Reports of Houthi advances around Perim Island added to concern over the security of Red Sea traffic and Saudi export routes.

However, the supplied reporting does not independently establish that control of Perim itself would put a separate 4%–5% of global oil supply at risk. The better-supported figure is the approximately 4 million barrels per day moved through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline before its shutdown. 17

Why prices were already above $100

The latest jump followed a steep prior-week rally. Brent had moved above $100 for the first time since July after gaining roughly 8% during the preceding week, as the wider conflict and constraints around Hormuz tightened supply expectations. 11

The new attacks mattered because they weakened two potential pressure-release valves at the same time:

• Saudi Red Sea exports: The East-West pipeline outage limited the kingdom’s ability to reroute crude around Hormuz. 17
• A diplomatic shipping arrangement: Talks intended to address transit through Hormuz were no longer proceeding as planned. 18

Markets commonly price expected shortages before they appear in official supply data. In this case, the concern was that a short-lived transit shock could become a measurable export loss if storage at Yanbu ran down before the pipeline returned.

Why the postponed Oman meeting mattered

A meeting between Iran and Gulf states scheduled for Oman was intended to discuss arrangements for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oman said it was postponed “in the interests of consensus,” while Iran said it would not reopen the strait until U.S. demands were met. 18

The delay did not itself halt oil flows, but it reduced confidence in a quick operational agreement that might improve shipping access or lower the perceived danger to vessels. With attacks occurring around the region’s key oil transit routes, that lack of a near-term diplomatic off-ramp supported the higher risk premium in crude prices. 18

What could drive the next move in oil

The key variables are whether Saudi Arabia can restore the East-West pipeline quickly and whether diplomacy yields a workable shipping arrangement through Hormuz.

If the pipeline remains down long enough for Yanbu inventories to be depleted, Saudi export volumes could be curtailed, putting up to roughly 4% of global supply at risk, according to buyers and traders cited by Reuters. 17 If talks fail to produce an operational arrangement for shipping and attacks continue, crude may retain a substantial geopolitical premium. 18

IG analyst Tony Sycamore said oil could move toward $119.48—the high reached near March—if Oman talks did not produce a result and the pipeline was not restored quickly. That is a market scenario, not a certainty: a faster repair, effective shipping arrangements or a de-escalation in attacks could reduce the supply-risk premium. 1