ADB Raises Taiwan’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 11%

The Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) September 2026 outlook puts Taiwan among the clearest beneficiaries of demand for AI-related technology. It raised Taiwan’s 2026 growth forecast by 1.5 percentage points to 11%, even as its upgrade for developing Asia and the Pacific as a whole was a more modest 0.1 percentage point.89

Why ADB upgraded Taiwan

ADB lifted Taiwan’s 2026 forecast from 9.5% in July to 11%. Taiwan’s economy grew 14.1% in the first half of 2026, alongside a surge in AI-related exports and investment. Technology exports rose 65% in US dollar terms over that period, according to customs data cited in reporting on the outlook.85

Those figures show why exports feature prominently in the upgrade, but they do not measure domestic consumption’s contribution to first-half growth. The provided sources also do not establish Taiwan’s precise 2027 forecast or how it changed from July; the region’s unchanged 2027 forecast should not be mistaken for Taiwan’s.89

How the other country forecasts changed

ADB raised Vietnam’s forecast from 7.2% to 7.8% for 2026 and from 7.0% to 7.6% for 2027, following stronger-than-expected first-half performance.3219 For Malaysia, it raised the 2026 forecast from 4.6% to 4.9% and the 2027 forecast from 4.5% to 4.7%, with robust technology exports supporting the outlook.2

The changes were not uniformly positive. India’s 2026 forecast rose from 6.6% to 7.0%; ADB also identified strong investment in India as a support for its regional upgrade. The provided evidence does not confirm India’s September 2027 revision.299 The Philippines’ 2026 forecast fell from 3.8% to 3.3%, with weak public investment contributing to the downgrade; ADB projects 5.1% growth in 2027, though the provided sources do not establish a July-to-September change for that year.3133

For Bangladesh, a report on the outlook says ADB cut its FY2027 forecast from 4.5% to 4.0% and put FY2026 growth at 3.7%. Those are fiscal-year figures, not necessarily comparable with the calendar-year forecasts above; the provided evidence does not establish the earlier FY2026 estimate. No reliable Pakistan forecast revision is established by the provided sources.36

What could disrupt the outlook?

ADB now forecasts 5.0% growth in developing Asia and the Pacific in 2026, up from 4.9% in July, while leaving its 2027 forecast at 5.1%. Investment and technology exports are helping to support growth, but a prolonged Middle East conflict and elevated, volatile energy prices remain risks. A strong El Niño could add price pressure into 2027.910

ADB also warns that tighter financial conditions could compound the effects of a sharp correction in elevated AI-related equity valuations, increasing market volatility. That is a risk to the outlook—not a correction the bank says has already occurred.9