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Russia’s Oil Output Fell Again in September as Crude Exports Rose
Russia produced 8.643 million barrels of crude a day in September 2026, down 38,000 bpd from revised August output. Russia’s September output was 1.306 million bpd below its 9.949 million bpd OPEC+ quota; the group kept November targets unchanged, but the available reports do not establish a December quota decision.
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Key takeaways
- Russia produced 8.643 million barrels of crude a day in September 2026, down 38,000 bpd from revised August output.
- Russia’s September output was 1.306 million bpd below its 9.949 million bpd OPEC+ quota; the group kept November targets unchanged, but the available reports do not establish a December quota decision.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: How did Russia’s crude oil production, refining activity, and exports change in September 2026, according to OPEC’s secondary-source data an. Article summary: Russia’s crude production continued to fall in September 2026, but more slowly than in August, while refinery disruptions persisted and crude exports increased. The available evidence supports that broad picture, but is . Topic tags: general, news, documentation, general web. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts wi
Russia’s crude production fell again in September 2026, but the monthly decline was smaller than in August. OPEC’s secondary-source estimate put output at 8.643 million barrels per day, while refinery disruption continued and crude exports increased. 3
Production fell for a tenth consecutive month
OPEC’s September estimate was 38,000 barrels per day below revised August output. August production had fallen 174,000 bpd from July, so the September decline was much slower. Using those reported changes, revised August output works out to 8.681 million bpd and July output to 8.855 million bpd. 3
Charter’97 described September as Russia’s tenth consecutive monthly production decline. The supplied figures establish the run of declines, but do not provide enough consistent monthly data to calculate the cumulative loss since November 2025. 11
September output was 1.306 million bpd below Russia’s OPEC+ quota of 9.949 million bpd. 21 On October 4, seven OPEC+ members agreed to keep November targets unchanged; TASS reported Russia’s November quota at the same 9.949 million bpd level as September and October. That decision does not, by itself, establish what Russia’s quota would be in December.
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Across OPEC+, production rose by 956,000 bpd in September, according to TASS, though the group remained 5.453 million bpd below its baseline target. The available report does not establish how much of the increase came from Saudi Arabia. 17
Refinery pressure persisted
The International Energy Agency said Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure had led it to lower its Russian production outlook. It also cut its forecast for Russian refinery throughput to an average of 4 million barrels per day for the remainder of 2026 and for 2027. 5
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The IEA said persistent, increasingly precise strikes and patchwork repairs were having a cumulative negative effect on the refining system, with sanctions limiting the industry’s ability to recover. 39 The available reporting does not provide a reliable September total for refinery shutdowns, repair backlogs or attack frequency, or a direct comparison between September refining runs and seasonal norms.
Crude exports rose, while diesel shipments weakened
Russia shipped 3.76 million barrels of crude per day in the four weeks to October 4, the highest level in two months, Bloomberg reported. The increase coincided with continuing pressure on refiners; Bloomberg also said a diesel-sales halt and higher subsidies to refiners blunted the financial benefit of the crude-export rise. 36
Refined-product exports followed a different pattern: seaborne shipments reached about 1.17 million barrels per day in September, a three-month high, even as diesel flows slumped under the government’s export ban. Russia extended its ban on most diesel exports through October. 37
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Forecasts and data differences
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia’s annual oil output would fall slightly, described the situation as temporary and expected production to rise after scheduled refinery maintenance. Reuters separately reported that the government’s revised annual oil-production outlook was a 17-year low; the excerpts available here do not give its numerical forecast. 4
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The August figures also vary across the supplied reports. An October 12 AK&M bulletin cited OPEC’s August estimate as 8.718 million bpd and the IEA’s as 8.36 million bpd, while Bloomberg’s October 13 account used revised OPEC August output of 8.681 million bpd. The reports do not reconcile these versions, so the difference should not be treated as a clean, same-vintage comparison. 14
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Russia produced 8.643 million barrels of crude a day in September 2026, down 38,000 bpd from revised August output.
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Russia produced 8.643 million barrels of crude a day in September 2026, down 38,000 bpd from revised August output. Russia’s September output was 1.306 million bpd below its 9.949 million bpd OPEC+ quota; the group kept November targets unchanged, but the available reports do not establish a December quota decision.
Sources
bloomberg.comDecline in Russian Crude Output Slowed in September, OPEC Says
charter97.orgOil Production In Russia Has Fallen For The 10th ...
tass.comtass.com · economy · 2201463Russia cuts oil production by 38,000 bpd in September, OPEC says
reuters.comOPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady