Middle East oil flows averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week ending October 18, exceeding the reported prewar average of 23.3 million. That regional total combined shipments through the Strait of Hormuz with oil moved by alternative routes; it does not mean the strait or regional shipping had returned to normal.
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The recovery combined tanker movements and rerouting
Hormuz was still a dangerous and disrupted route, but it was not a complete barrier to every oil movement. Kpler data cited in reporting put flows through the strait, including offshore transfers in the Gulf of Oman, at about 14 million barrels a day—roughly 82% of the prewar level in one account.
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7 These measures describe oil flows, including transfers, rather than proof that ordinary commercial traffic was operating normally.
Reporting also attributed renewed tanker movements to an improvised shipping system under U.S. protection.
10 Together, continued flows through and around the strait helped keep regional exports moving despite ongoing attacks.
Bypass pipelines reduced reliance on Hormuz
Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline carries crude to the Red Sea coast, where it can be loaded at Yanbu without passing through Hormuz. Reports said Yanbu loadings resumed after the pipeline restarted.
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24 Saudi and UAE routes also helped increase the share of regional crude leaving without crossing the strait: one September estimate put that share at about 40%, up from 17% before the war.
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That shift helps explain how total exports could exceed their earlier average even while Hormuz flows remained below their prewar level. The available reporting supports the broader role of bypass routes, but does not independently establish every operational detail about pipeline repairs or crew pay.
The recovery figures use different measures
The more-than-24-million-barrel figure is a regional oil-flow total for the week ending October 18.
2 JPMorgan’s separate estimate of 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of prewar levels, referred to Middle Eastern crude flows in an earlier assessment.
22 The numbers are not direct comparisons: they cover different periods and measures.
Likewise, a reported figure near 14 million barrels a day for Hormuz-related flows is not the same as total regional exports. Oil routed through pipelines and other alternatives contributes to the regional total without passing through the strait.
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Iran’s exports and the limits of the rebound
The same reporting describes a selective U.S. approach: U.S.-protected movements supported regional oil shipments, while a U.S. blockade restricted Iranian exports.
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10 CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said U.S. forces had helped move more than 1.3 billion barrels through the waterway in recent months; that is an official claim reported by the press, not an independently verified tally here.
6 Cooper also said the blockade had prevented $25 billion in Iranian oil exports, a figure likewise attributed to him in reporting.
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Above-prewar aggregate volumes do not establish that shipping is safe, inexpensive or dependable. Reports describe continuing attacks and a shortage of tankers that pushed up delivered crude costs, illustrating the difference between oil being exported and being reliably delivered.
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18 The recovery depends on routes, vessels and operating conditions that remain exposed to disruption.