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Gulf Oil Exports Fell in October, While Hormuz Flows Stayed Above August
Vortexa estimated Gulf crude, condensate and refined product exports excluding LPG at 17.1 million barrels per day in October, down from 18.9 million in September and about three quarters of the pre war level. For the Strait of Hormuz alone, preliminary Vortexa data put combined crude and refined product flows at ab...
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Key takeaways
- Vortexa estimated Gulf crude, condensate and refined product exports excluding LPG at 17.1 million barrels per day in October, down from 18.9 million in September and about three quarters of the pre war level.
- For the Strait of Hormuz alone, preliminary Vortexa data put combined crude and refined product flows at about 10.3 million bpd—13.2% below September but 28% above August.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: How did Gulf oil exports in October compare with September’s highest levels since the Iran war began, August volumes and pre-war baselines,. Article summary: Reuters’ November 3 report said October Gulf oil exports fell from September’s highest levels since the Iran war began, but both tracking firms cautioned that October estimates could be revised upward as shipment details. Topic tags: general, news, general web, user generated. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts wi
Gulf oil exports eased in October from September’s post-war high, according to ship-tracking data reported by Reuters. Vortexa put flows of crude, condensate and refined products—excluding LPG—at 17.1 million barrels per day (bpd), compared with 18.9 million bpd in September. That left October flows at roughly three-quarters of the pre-war level, and the trackers said the latest estimates could rise as more shipment details emerged.1
The Strait of Hormuz figures tell a related but narrower story: preliminary Vortexa data reported by Argus put combined crude and refined-product flows through the strait at about 10.3 million bpd in October, down from September but above August. These measures cover different geographies and do not form one directly comparable series.23
October versus September and the pre-war baseline
The clearest like-for-like regional comparison in the available reporting is Vortexa’s total excluding LPG: 17.1 million bpd in October versus 18.9 million in September. Reuters described October as roughly 75% of pre-war levels. The report also said both tracking firms showed a monthly decline, while warning that October estimates could be revised upward as additional shipment information became available.1
September totals vary with the measure being counted. A separate Reuters report gave Vortexa’s September total—including LPG—at 19.2 million bpd, compared with a pre-war average of about 23.6 million bpd. Kpler’s reported September total was 18.6 million bpd.32 Those figures should not be substituted for the 18.9-million-bpd September comparison in the October report: the definitions and tracking-company estimates differ.
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An earlier Reuters commentary cited Kpler’s October-to-date Middle East oil exports at 17.3 million bpd, versus 16.4 million in September and 16.9 million during the two pre-war months.3 That snapshot points in a different direction from the later report of a full-month decline. The available reporting does not explain the discrepancy in enough detail to reconcile the series, so the October-to-date figure should not be read as a final monthly comparison.
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Hormuz flows: below September, above August
Argus reported preliminary Vortexa data showing October flows through the Strait of Hormuz at about 10.3 million bpd, made up of 8.5 million bpd of crude and 1.8 million bpd of refined products. That was 13.2% below September’s 11.85 million bpd, but 28% above August.23
A separate Reuters report citing Kpler put crude crossing Hormuz at at least 10.1 million bpd in an October 6 note. That was down 27% from the previous week’s wartime high, back to the September average and at 74% of the pre-war level, according to the analysts.4 This Kpler figure covers crude crossing the strait; it is not the same measure as Argus’s combined crude-and-products total.
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Flows were also supported by exports from other routes. Reuters reported that exports from the Gulf of Oman coast and the Red Sea rose to 6.7 million bpd, more than twice their pre-war levels, as Hormuz volumes fell.4 The available excerpts do not provide a complete, consistently defined October total split across Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman.
Daily swings and country-level estimates
Monthly averages mask sharp daily movements. Kpler data reported by Reuters showed Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in September’s final week; provisional daily figures on the dates cited ranged from 19.5 million to 22.5 million bpd.6 That is a daily crude-export measure, not the October monthly total excluding LPG.
Saudi Arabia accounted for an important share of the reported rebound, but October estimates differed by tracker. Gulf News reported Vortexa’s Saudi shipments at 6.5 million bpd so far in October, compared with 6.6 million for all of September. TankerTrackers.com put October exports at 6.99 million bpd, while Kpler’s estimate was 5.4 million bpd, below its September level.10 These are estimates from different tracking firms and reporting periods, not a single settled figure. Vortexa also put Saudi Red Sea exports, mainly from Yanbu, at 2.5 million bpd so far in October, up from 2.4 million in September, according to a report reproduced by Rigzone.
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The available figures do not isolate October’s individual contributions from the UAE, Iraq, Oman and Kuwait to the regional change. Reuters’ September Vortexa basket covered Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq and the UAE; it did not include Iran.32 The cited reporting does not state why Iran was excluded from that aggregate, so its omission should not be explained by inference.
Why the estimates may change
Ship-tracking totals are provisional, especially when vessels’ positions are not continuously visible. Reuters noted that ships often disable satellite-tracking systems while travelling through the strait and for several days afterward; later identification of those movements can lead to upward revisions.8 Reuters’ November 3 report likewise said both tracking firms allowed for October estimates to be revised upward as more shipment details emerged.
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The available sources do not establish the size of any future revision, or show that a revision will erase October’s reported decline. Nor should divergent tracker estimates be treated as a like-for-like disagreement without accounting for differences in timing, geography and what each total includes. For now, the strongest supported conclusion is that the reported October regional total fell from September, while Hormuz-only flows were still above August and remained sensitive to incomplete tracking.1
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What is the short answer to "Gulf Oil Exports Fell in October, While Hormuz Flows Stayed Above August"?
Vortexa estimated Gulf crude, condensate and refined product exports excluding LPG at 17.1 million barrels per day in October, down from 18.9 million in September and about three quarters of the pre war level.
What are the key points to validate first?
Vortexa estimated Gulf crude, condensate and refined product exports excluding LPG at 17.1 million barrels per day in October, down from 18.9 million in September and about three quarters of the pre war level. For the Strait of Hormuz alone, preliminary Vortexa data put combined crude and refined product flows at about 10.3 million bpd—13.2% below September but 28% above August.