From Hormuz to the DAX: How US-Iran Peace Hopes Rocked Global Markets

Oil Prices: A Chokepoint-Driven Rollercoaster

Every swing in crude prices traced back to the Strait of Hormuz, which had been effectively closed by the conflict. A deal that reopened the strait would unleash trapped supply; any setback threatened further disruption.

By late May, both governments were downplaying an imminent breakthrough, but traders were already pricing in the possibility of a memorandum of understanding .

Delivery Hero: A Geopolitical Trade Supercharged by M&A

Among individual stocks, Delivery Hero stood out. The German food-delivery company, which operates extensively in the Middle East through its subsidiary Talabat, was highly sensitive to regional stability. In early March, escalating tensions had sent its shares plummeting 7.6% to an eight-month low . By late May, the script had flipped entirely.

• May 12 — Shares “swung into the green” amid CEO succession news, with the stock already benefiting from the broader peace-deal optimism .
• May 25 — Delivery Hero surged 11.94% to €37.60, an 18-month high. Multiple headlines explicitly linked the move to “Germany’s DAX Extends Rally on US-Iran Deal Hopes; Delivery Hero Jumps” .

However, the rally was not purely geopolitical. On the same day, reports emerged that Uber was exploring an $11.6 billion takeover approach, adding a powerful M&A tailwind. Delivery Hero confirmed it had received an offer of €33 per share, which would value the company at over €10 billion . By late May, the stock was up roughly 66% year-to-date .

The Six Diplomatic Signals That Moved Everything

1. U.S. 15-point peace proposal (March 2026) — The U.S. sent Iran a detailed plan covering nuclear limits, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and sanctions relief. Iran initially dismissed it, creating uncertainty but also establishing a negotiating framework .
2. Trump’s ultimatum and pause (early May) — Trump threatened to resume bombing if Iran didn’t sign, then paused a naval escort operation—a carrot-and-stick that markets interpreted as serious deal momentum .
3. Iran’s formal response (May 18) — Tehran said it had responded to the U.S. proposal, easing some tensions and lifting European stocks .
4. Khamenei’s uranium directive (May 21) — Reuters reported that Supreme Leader Khamenei ordered near-weapons-grade uranium kept in-country rather than shipped abroad, a significant complication that dented hopes for a swift resolution .
5. Rubio’s “some progress” comments (May 22) — The U.S. Secretary of State signaled cautious optimism, saying negotiations were advancing but warning against over-optimism .
6. Push for a memorandum of understanding (late May) — Talks centered on a roughly one-page, 14-point framework covering nuclear limits, reopening Hormuz, lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, and a durable ceasefire. As of late May 2026, both sides were still advancing talks toward a memorandum of understanding .

For European equities, oil traders, and a German delivery stock riding a takeover wave, the lesson of May 2026 was clear: in a world where the Strait of Hormuz hangs in the balance, diplomacy is the ultimate market-mover.