Ethereum’s ETH/BTC Breakout Looks Promising, but the Golden Cross Is No Guarantee

Ethereum’s rally was stronger than Bitcoin’s during the week ending August 23, 2026, but the evidence points to a tactical shift in relative momentum, not yet a confirmed long-term rotation.

Using the cited price levels, Ether rose from about $1,880 to $2,420—roughly 28.7%—while Bitcoin gained from approximately $63,000 to $77,050, or about 22.3%. That is an advantage of around 6.4 percentage points for ETH. Reports during the rally also described Ether gains of roughly 29% to 30% for the week. 5

Why Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin

The rally began against a favorable macro and policy backdrop. The U.S. Treasury said it would at least double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated Treasury securities, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The change was reported as a measure intended to support liquidity in the long-end of the bond market. 33 36

President Donald Trump’s simultaneous call for Congress to establish clearer rules for digital assets added a crypto-specific catalyst. Reuters reported that crypto-related stocks rose as markets responded to both the Treasury announcement and the administration’s push for digital-asset legislation. 33

Those developments explain why the broader crypto market moved higher, but they do not by themselves explain a durable ETH-specific advantage. Ether typically offers a higher-beta way to express a crypto risk-on view. Once Bitcoin stabilized and market confidence improved, traders could have had more incentive to move into the laggard with greater catch-up potential. That is a market interpretation—not proof that either policy announcement directly caused ETH to outperform.

What the ETH/BTC golden cross means

The ETH/BTC ratio compares the value of one Ether with one Bitcoin. A rising ratio means Ether is gaining value relative to Bitcoin, even if both assets are rising in dollar terms.

The ratio had rebounded about 25% from its June 6 low before its daily 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average—a pattern commonly called a golden cross. In practical terms, the crossover says ETH/BTC’s recent trend has become stronger than its longer-term average. 49 54

That is constructive for an ETH rotation because it confirms that Ether is not merely rising alongside Bitcoin; it is improving on a relative basis. The strongest interpretation is conditional: if ETH/BTC holds above the crossover and spot demand continues, the ratio may have room to extend its recovery.

The pattern is still a lagging momentum signal. Moving averages are calculated from prices that have already occurred, so a golden cross confirms improving trend conditions rather than independently forecasting future prices.

The historical record is mixed

Previous ETH/BTC golden crosses do not provide a clean, repeatable template:

• The February 2021 crossover preceded an approximately 93% rise in the ratio.
• The July 2025 crossover initially looked successful, with a roughly 36% gain over the following four weeks, but the ratio later reversed into a steeper decline.
• Crosses in May and August 2022 quickly failed, becoming examples of bullish traps rather than durable trend changes. 49 51

This small and inconsistent sample suggests that the signal works best when supported by a favorable liquidity environment, sustained relative-strength gains and real spot buying. It is much less reliable when markets are entering a risk-off phase or when leverage is driving the move.

Why the bullish ETH case has gained attention

The latest rally has encouraged prominent market figures to make a more bullish case for Ether.

BTC.TOP founder Jiang Zhuoer reportedly said he was about 90% confident that the crypto bear market had ended and that ETH could outperform BTC in the current cycle. He described a plan to deploy remaining capital into ETH if Bitcoin retreats to the $67,000–$72,000 range, or otherwise to complete the purchases by the end of October. 1 9

That positioning is relevant as a sentiment indicator, but it is not independent market evidence. Jiang’s proposed $20,000 ETH scenario also depends on two aggressive assumptions occurring together: Bitcoin reaching $200,000 and the ETH/BTC ratio reaching 0.10. At those levels, the arithmetic is straightforward—$200,000 multiplied by 0.10 equals $20,000—but the calculation does not make either assumption more likely.

Tom Lee’s reported $9,000–$12,000 year-end 2026 range rests on a different thesis. He has argued that Ethereum could benefit if it becomes a major settlement layer for tokenized financial assets and future AI-related activity. 17 18 Those are long-term adoption narratives, not short-term confirmation of the chart signal. They would require continuing institutional demand, network use and value capture by ETH.

The risks behind the rally

The setup is bullish in momentum terms but vulnerable in positioning terms.

First, at $2,420, Ether would still be roughly 51% below the cited August 2025 record of $4,946. That gap can be interpreted in two opposing ways: as evidence of catch-up potential or as evidence that previous demand failed to hold.

Second, the supplied market snapshot places Ethereum’s RSI near 87. An RSI at that level indicates an extremely extended short-term move. It does not guarantee an immediate decline, but it raises the risk of consolidation or mean reversion.

Third, rapidly expanding derivatives open interest and leveraged long positions can make a rally fragile. If ETH loses momentum, forced selling from liquidated long positions can accelerate the decline and create a liquidation cascade.

Finally, the scale of the forecasts matters. A move from $2,420 to $10,000 would require approximately a 313% gain, not 306%. Either figure implies more than a quadrupling from the cited price, so the target should be treated as a high-upside scenario rather than a base-case expectation.

Bottom line

Ethereum’s outperformance reflects a combination of broad risk-on catalysts, stronger ETH/BTC momentum and renewed interest in Ether’s catch-up and utility narratives. The approximately 25% rebound and daily golden cross improve the tactical case for an ETH rotation, especially if the ratio continues to hold its gains.

But the historical record is too inconsistent to treat the crossover as a standalone buy signal. Jiang Zhuoer’s positioning and Tom Lee’s forecasts add to the bullish narrative, not to its certainty. For the rotation thesis to become more convincing, ETH/BTC would need sustained follow-through, spot demand would need to remain strong, and the market would need to absorb the current overbought and leveraged conditions without a sharp reversal.